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Prévision du coefficient de la réserve obligatoire de la Banque centrale du Congo
[Forecasting of the coefficient of the reserve requirement of the Central bank of Congo]

Author

Listed:
  • Pinshi, Christian
  • Mukendi, Christian
  • Ndombe, Patrick

Abstract

The economists provide forecasts in connection with future economic facts by using statistical data to conduct these forecasts. The goal of this study is to provide an academic paper for the universities in the analysis of forecasting. We analyzed and estimated the coefficient of the reserve requirement in foreign currency to envisage with horizon October 2014 until December 2014. We chose two methods: the first method is that of the exponential smoothing of Holt and Winters, since the series comprised seasonal effect and the trend. The second method is that of the linear exponential smoothing of Brown, after having deseasonalized the series, there was not seasonal effect and there remained only the trend. Both of method predicted a weak increasing variation of the coefficient of the reserve requirement. This small rise is in particular due to the process of fight against dollarization. By comparing both method we retained Holt and Winters because the error of forecasting (difference between realization and forecasting) of the method of Holt and Winters is very minimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinshi, Christian & Mukendi, Christian & Ndombe, Patrick, 2015. "Prévision du coefficient de la réserve obligatoire de la Banque centrale du Congo
    [Forecasting of the coefficient of the reserve requirement of the Central bank of Congo]
    ," MPRA Paper 79769, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79769
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79769/1/MPRA_paper_79769.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillaume Chevillon, 2005. "Économétrie de la prévision," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-11, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Frederic Mishkin & Christian Bordes & Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur & Dominique Lacoue-Labarthe, 2007. "Monnaie, banque et marchés financiers," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308684, HAL.
    3. Frederic Mishkin & Christian Bordes & Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur & Dominique Lacoue-Labarthe & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Monnaie, banque et marchés financiers," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00647104, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting (Holt-Winters and linear exponential smoothing of Brown); reserve requirement.;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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