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A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria

Author

Listed:
  • Kaloyan Ganev

    (St Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for fiscal policies design in the framework of the EU Stability and Growth Pact. Empirical results using Bulgarian data are also included for llustrative purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaloyan Ganev, 2015. "A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria," Bulgarian Economic Papers bep-2015-04, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, revised Mar 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2015-04
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    File URL: https://www.uni-sofia.bg/index.php/eng/content/download/138804/1018812/file/BEP-2015-04.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Todorov, 2017. "Bulgaria’s Cyclical Position and Market (Dis)equilibria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 30-64.
    2. repec:zbw:espost:170565 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Milena Pesheva & Aleksandar Vasilev, 2017. "Endogenising Total Factor Productivity: The Foreign Direct Investment Channel in the Case of Bulgaria (2004-2013)," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 15(2), pages 127-145.
    4. Dilian Vassilev, 2021. "A Model of Natural Interest Rate: The Case of Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 46-72.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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