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An Investigation into the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Treasury Notes in the U.S

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  • Cebula, Richard

Abstract

Using four decades of data, this empirical study adopts a loanable funds model to investigate the impact of the federal government budget deficit in the U.S. on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes. For the 40-year period 1973-2012, an autoregressive 2SLS estimate finds that the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury notes was an increasing function of the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Aaa-rated corporate bonds, the ex ante real interest rate yield on three-month Treasury bills, and the increase in per capita real GDP, while being a decreasing function of net capital inflows (as a percent of GDP), which are treated as endogenous, and the monetary base (as a percent of GDP). In addition, it is found that that the federal budget deficit (relative to the GDP level) exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes, a finding consistent in principle with a number of prior studies of other interest rate measures during shorter and earlier time periods. A modest robustness test using the ex ante real seven-year Treasury note yield generates the same conclusions.

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  • Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Investigation into the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Treasury Notes in the U.S," MPRA Paper 57317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57317
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard J. Cebula, 2013. "An exploratory inquiry into the impact of budget deficits on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, 1973--2012," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1497-1500, November.
    2. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Barth, James R & Iden, George & Russek, Frank S, 1986. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1158-1167, December.
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    5. Bradley Ewing & Mark Yanochik, 1999. "Budget deficits and the term structure of interest rates in Italy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 199-201.
    6. Richard Cebula & Pablo Cuellar, 2010. "Recent evidence on the impact of government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 301-307, July.
    7. Keith M. Carlson & Roger W. Spencer, 1975. "Crowding out and its critics," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 57(Dec), pages 2-17.
    8. Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term, Interest Rates, 1973-1995," MPRA Paper 51414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Richard J. Cebula, 2005. "Recent empirical evidence on the impact of the primary budget deficit on nominal longer term treasury note interest rate yields," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 47-58.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget deficits; ex ante real interest rates; international capital flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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