An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012
The existence of large federal budget deficits in the U.S., especially in recent years, raises the specter of concern regarding their potential effects on real interest rates (as well as economic growth and capital formation). This study provides current and new empirical evidence on the impact of the federal budget deficit on the real interest rate yields on intermediate-term debt issues of the U.S. Treasury, represented herein by the ex post real interest rate yields on three-year Treasury notes and seven-year Treasury notes, two interest rate measures that have received essentially no attention in the economics and finance literature in recent years. The study is couched within a loanable funds model that includes two ex post real interest rate yields, the monetary base as a percent of GDP, the change in per capita real GDP, net financial capital inflows as a percent of GDP, and the budget deficit as a percent of GDP. This study uses annual data for the study period 1972-2012, a time period that includes “quantitative easing” monetary policies by the Federal Reserve. Two-stage least squares estimations reveal that the federal budget deficit, expressed as a percent of GDP, has exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the ex post real interest rate yields on both three-year and seven-year Treasury notes, even after allowing for quantitative easing and other factors. The study also considers the 1980-2012 time period and offers simple robustness testing.
|Date of creation:||10 Apr 2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- R.J. Cebula, 1997.
"Government deficit, ex post real long-term interest rates and causality,"
BNL Quarterly Review,
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(202), pages 325-336.
- R.J. Cebula, 1997. "Government deficit, ex post real long-term interest rates and causality," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(202), pages 325-336.
- Cebula, Richard J. & Koch, James V., 1994. "Federal budget deficits, interest rates, and international capital flows: A further note," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 117-120.
- Richard J. Cebula, 2013. "An exploratory inquiry into the impact of budget deficits on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, 1973--2012," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1497-1500, November.
- James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, 09.
- Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
- Vito Tanzi, 1985. "Fiscal Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: An Empirical Analysis, 1960-84 (DÃ©ficits budgÃ©taires et taux d'intÃ©rÃªt aux Etats-Unis: analyse empirique, 1960-84) (El dÃ©ficit fiscal y la," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 551-576, December.
- Richard J. Cebula, 2005. "Recent empirical evidence on the impact of the primary budget deficit on nominal longer term treasury note interest rate yields," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 47-58.
- Richard Cebula & Pablo Cuellar, 2010. "Recent evidence on the impact of government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 301-307, July.
- Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term, Interest Rates, 1973-1995," MPRA Paper 51414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cebula, Richard J & Belton, Willie J, 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: Evidence for Closed and Open Systems Put into Perspective, 1955-1989," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(2), pages 188-209.
- Barth, James R & Iden, George & Russek, Frank S, 1986. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1158-67, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.