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A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US

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  • Richard J. Cebula

    (Armstrong Atlantic State University, Savannah (USA))

Abstract

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, this study empirically examines, for theUS, the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficitand the ex ante real long term interest rate. The system includes personal federal income tax rates, the M2 money supply, the unemployment rate, an ex ante realshort term interest rate and net international capital inflows. To clarify thedeficit/interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primarydeficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. The ECM estimates in this study provide results that suggest a bi-directional relationship between theprimary budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate yield.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Cebula, 2002. "A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(223), pages 417-435.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:2002:44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Government Tax and Auditing Policies on the Size of the Underground Economy: The Case of the United States, 1973-94," MPRA Paper 49810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Vito Tanzi, 1985. "Fiscal Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: An Empirical Analysis, 1960-84 (Déficits budgétaires et taux d'intérêt aux Etats-Unis: analyse empirique, 1960-84) (El déficit fiscal y la," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 551-576, December.
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    14. Cebula, Richard J & Belton, Willie J, 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: Evidence for Closed and Open Systems Put into Perspective, 1955-1989," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(2), pages 188-209.
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    17. Cebula, Richard J. & Rhodd, Rupert G., 1993. "A note on budget deficits, debt service payments, and interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 439-445.
    18. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1989. "A Political Theory of Government Debt and Deficits in a Neo-Ricardian Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 713-732, September.
    19. Richard J. Cebula, 1985. "The ‘Crowding Out’ Effect of Fiscal Policy: Correction," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 435-437, August.
    20. Feldstein, Martin S & Eckstein, Otto, 1970. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(4), pages 363-375, November.
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    1. Liu Kerry, 2023. "The Effects of Foreign Participation on Chinese Government Bond Yields," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 222-240, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget; Deficit; Interest Rates; Interest; Money Supply; Money; Supply; Tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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