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The impact of net international capital inflows on nominal long-term interest rates in France

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  • Richard Cebula

Abstract

Previous research on the impact of net international capital inflows on domestic interest rates has been almost exclusively founded in regression analysis and has yielded mixed results. Some studies find that net capital inflows reduce domestic interest rates, whereas others find no such impact. The present study, which applies cointegration techniques to quarterly data over the 1973–93 period, finds that such capital inflows to a major industrialized nation, France, may not only reduce longer term interest rates in that nation but may also offset a large portion of the longer term interest rate impact of that nation's central government budget deficit. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1997

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Cebula, 1997. "The impact of net international capital inflows on nominal long-term interest rates in France," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 179-190, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:25:y:1997:i:2:p:179-190
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02298384
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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    3. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Richard Cebula, 2003. "Budget deficits and interest rates in Germany," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(1), pages 64-68, February.
    5. Vito Tanzi, 1985. "Fiscal Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: An Empirical Analysis, 1960-84 (Déficits budgétaires et taux d'intérêt aux Etats-Unis: analyse empirique, 1960-84) (El déficit fiscal y la," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 551-576, December.
    6. Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term, Interest Rates, 1973-1995," MPRA Paper 51414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, September.
    8. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
    9. Cebula, Richard J & Belton, Willie J, 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: Evidence for Closed and Open Systems Put into Perspective, 1955-1989," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(2), pages 188-209.
    10. Cebula, Richard J. & Saltz, Ira S., 1998. "Ex Ante Real Long-Term Interest Rates and U.S. Federal Budget Deficits: Preliminary Error-Correction Evidence, 1971-1991," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 51(2), pages 163-169.
    11. Cebula, Richard J, 1988. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis for the United States, 1955-1984," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 43(3), pages 337-348.
    12. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates? : Evidence from six countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-300, September.
    13. Makin, John H, 1983. "Real Interest, Money Surprises, Anticipated Inflation and Fiscal Deficits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 374-384, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Government Borrowing And The Longterm Interest Rate: Application Of An Extended Loanable Funds Model To The Slovak Republic," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 55(184), pages 58-70, January –.
    2. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Does more government deficit raise the interest rate? Application of extended loanable funds model to Slovenia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 349-361.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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