The Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on US Treasury Notes, 1979-2001
This study empirically examines the impact of the federal government budget on the nominal interest rate yield on US Treasury notes over the 1979-2001 period. In a system that includes the monetary base, the civilian labor force unemployment rate, the ex ante real 52 week Treasury bill rate, and the percentage growth rate of the S&P 500 stock index, Error-Corrections Model (ECM) estimation finds that the total federal budget deficit acted to increase the nominal interest rate yield on seven year US Treasury notes over the study period.
|Date of creation:||08 Sep 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in The ICFAI Journal of Applied Economics 2.3(2004): pp. 7-18|
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- Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term, Interest Rates, 1973-1995," MPRA Paper 51414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cebula, Richard J & Belton, Willie J, 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: Evidence for Closed and Open Systems Put into Perspective, 1955-1989," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(2), pages 188-209.
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