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An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term, Interest Rates, 1973-1995

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  • Cebula, Richard

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the U.S. federal budget deficit on ex ante real long-term interest rates in the U.S. using quarterly data for the period from 1973 through 1995. The study adopts a loanable funds model. Two stage least squares estimates reveal that the federal budget deficit acted to elevate the ex ante real long term interest rate on ten year U.S. Treasury notes, Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, and Moody's Baa-rated corporate bonds.

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  • Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term, Interest Rates, 1973-1995," MPRA Paper 51414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51414
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cebula, Richard, 1987. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: A Brief Note," MPRA Paper 49829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Belton, Willie & Cebula, Richard, 1994. "International Capital Flows, Federal Budget Deficits, and Interest Rates, 1971-1984," MPRA Paper 52345, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    4. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, September.
    5. Cebula, Richard J & Belton, Willie J, 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: Evidence for Closed and Open Systems Put into Perspective, 1955-1989," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(2), pages 188-209.
    6. Cebula, Richard J. & Koch, James V., 1994. "Federal budget deficits, interest rates, and international capital flows: A further note," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 117-120.
    7. Keith M. Carlson & Roger W. Spencer, 1975. "Crowding out and its critics," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 57(Dec), pages 2-17.
    8. Vito Tanzi, 1985. "Fiscal Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: An Empirical Analysis, 1960-84 (Déficits budgétaires et taux d'intérêt aux Etats-Unis: analyse empirique, 1960-84) (El déficit fiscal y la," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 551-576, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "Have U.S. Budget Deficits Raised the Real Interest Rate Yield on Tax-Free Municipal Bonds?," MPRA Paper 55545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Richard J Cebula, 2004. "The Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on U.S. Treasury Notes, 1979-2001," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-18, March.
    3. Richard J. Cebula, 2008. "Small Firm Size and Health Insurance: A Private Enterprise Perspective," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 24(Fall 2008), pages 51-77.
    4. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard & Toma, Michael, 2005. "Impact of the Primary Budget Deficit on the Nominal Long Term Interest Rate Yield on Tax Free Municipal Bonds," MPRA Paper 61411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Richard J. Cebula, 2013. "Budget Deficits, Economic Freedom, and Economic Growth in OECD Nations: P2SLS Fixed-Effects Estimates, 2003–2008," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 28(Spring 20), pages 75-96.
    6. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Investigation into the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Treasury Notes in the U.S," MPRA Paper 57317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Cebula, Richard & Foley, Maggie, 2012. "Recent Evidence on the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Nominal Long Term Mortgage Interest Rate in the U.S," MPRA Paper 53691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer Term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(1), pages 23-40.
    9. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "Current Evidence on the Impact of Budget Deficits on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Debt Issues of the U.S. Treasury: An Analysis with Robustness Tests," MPRA Paper 55923, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hsing Yu & Hsieh Wen-jen, 2017. "Is Real Depreciation or Rising Government Debt Contractionary in India? A Simultaneous-Equation Model," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-6, June.
    11. Richard Cebula, 1997. "The impact of net international capital inflows on nominal long-term interest rates in France," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 179-190, June.
    12. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 55269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Cebula, Richard & Koch, James & Perry, William & Toma, Michael, 2003. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and the Crowding Out of Private Investment in the United states: Evidence for the 1990s," MPRA Paper 54571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard, 2006. "Identifying Determinants of the Cost of Long Term Borrowing for U.S. Firms: Insights for Management," MPRA Paper 49647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Yu Hsing, 2016. "Is Real Depreciation Contractionary? The Case of South Korea," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1951-1958.
    16. HSING, Yu, 2016. "Is Real Depreciation Expansionary? The Case Of The Slovak Republic," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(2), pages 55-62.
    17. Richard J. Cebula, 2013. "An exploratory inquiry into the impact of budget deficits on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, 1973--2012," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1497-1500, November.
    18. Richard Cebula & Pablo Cuellar, 2010. "Recent evidence on the impact of government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 301-307, July.
    19. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An exploratory analysis of the impact of budget deficits and other factors on the ex post real interest rate yield on tax-free municipal bonds in the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1297-1302, October.
    20. Stylianou Tasos, 2012. "Does Government Debt Promote Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis with Structural Breaks for the Economy of China," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 229-248, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget deficits; ex ante real long term interest rates; loanable funds model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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