IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v42y2018i4d10.1007_s12197-017-9424-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of U.S. federal government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year treasury notes during the post-Bretton Woods (1972–2016) era

Author

Listed:
  • Richard J. Cebula

    (Jacksonville University)

Abstract

This exploratory empirical study adopts an open-economy loanable funds model to investigate the impact of post-Bretton Woods U.S. federal government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes. Autoregressive, two stage least squares (AR/2SLS) estimation for the 1972–2016 study period reveals that the ex ante real interest rate yield on these notes has been an increasing function of the federal budget deficit (expressed as a percent of GDP). It follows that elevating the federal budget deficit appears to elevate the real cost of borrowing in the U.S. Given the implications of higher longer-term ex ante real interest rates on investment in new plant and equipment and other economic variables, this finding is one that responsible policy-makers should not overlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Cebula, 2018. "Impact of U.S. federal government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year treasury notes during the post-Bretton Woods (1972–2016) era," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 828-835, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:42:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s12197-017-9424-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-017-9424-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12197-017-9424-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12197-017-9424-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keith M. Carlson & Roger W. Spencer, 1975. "Crowding out and its critics," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 57(Dec), pages 2-17.
    2. Richard J. Cebula, 2013. "An exploratory inquiry into the impact of budget deficits on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, 1973--2012," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1497-1500, November.
    3. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Gale, William G. & Orszag, Peter R., 2003. "Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 56(3), pages 463-485, September.
    5. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer Term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(1), pages 23-40.
    6. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, September.
    7. Barth, James R & Iden, George & Russek, Frank S, 1986. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1158-1167, December.
    8. Daniel Choi & Mark Holmes, 2014. "Budget deficits and real interest rates: a regime-switching reflection on Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.
    9. Richard Cebula & Fiorentina Angjellari-Dajci & Maggie Foley, 2014. "An exploratory empirical inquiry into the impact of federal budget deficits on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes over the last half century," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 712-720, October.
    10. Cebula, Richard J. & Saltz, Ira S., 1998. "Ex Ante Real Long-Term Interest Rates and U.S. Federal Budget Deficits: Preliminary Error-Correction Evidence, 1971-1991," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 51(2), pages 163-169.
    11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    12. Bradley Ewing & Mark Yanochik, 1999. "Budget deficits and the term structure of interest rates in Italy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 199-201.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Suvra Prokash Mondal & Biswajit Maitra, 2022. "Deficits, Debt and Interest Rates in Sri Lanka: Does the Spillover of Foreign Interest Rates Matter?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 28-48, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Cebula & Fiorentina Angjellari-Dajci & Maggie Foley, 2014. "An exploratory empirical inquiry into the impact of federal budget deficits on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes over the last half century," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 712-720, October.
    2. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 55269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Investigation into the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Treasury Notes in the U.S," MPRA Paper 57317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Richard J Cebula, 2004. "The Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on U.S. Treasury Notes, 1979-2001," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-18, March.
    5. Cebula, Richard J. & Foley, Maggie, 2019. "An Empirical Analysis for the U.S. of the Effects of Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yields on Thirty-Year and Twenty-Year Treasury Bonds," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 231-252.
    6. Cebula, Richard J., 2014. "Preliminary Evidence on the Impact of Budget Deficits on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Notes after Allowing for Adoption of Monetary Policies Involving "Quantitative E," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 67(2), pages 181-200.
    7. Cebula, Richard & Foley, Maggie, 2012. "Recent Evidence on the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Nominal Long Term Mortgage Interest Rate in the U.S," MPRA Paper 53691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An exploratory analysis of the impact of budget deficits and other factors on the ex post real interest rate yield on tax-free municipal bonds in the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1297-1302, October.
    9. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Government Borrowing And The Longterm Interest Rate: Application Of An Extended Loanable Funds Model To The Slovak Republic," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 55(184), pages 58-70, January –.
    10. Richard Cebula & Pablo Cuellar, 2010. "Recent evidence on the impact of government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 301-307, July.
    11. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer Term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(1), pages 23-40.
    12. Hsing Yu & Hsieh Wen-jen, 2017. "Is Real Depreciation or Rising Government Debt Contractionary in India? A Simultaneous-Equation Model," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-6, June.
    13. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard, 2006. "Identifying Determinants of the Cost of Long Term Borrowing for U.S. Firms: Insights for Management," MPRA Paper 49647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    15. Hsing Yu, 2017. "Is Real Depreciation or More Government Deficit Expansionary? The Case of Slovenia," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 50-56, April.
    16. Richard J. Cebula, 2013. "Budget Deficits, Economic Freedom, and Economic Growth in OECD Nations: P2SLS Fixed-Effects Estimates, 2003–2008," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 28(Spring 20), pages 75-96.
    17. Yu Hsing, 2016. "Is Real Depreciation Contractionary? The Case of South Korea," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1951-1958.
    18. Suzan Hol, 2006. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the Scandinavian countries," Discussion Papers 469, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    19. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "The Nominal Interest Rate Yield Response to Net Government Borrowing: GLM Estimates, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 57428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard & Toma, Michael, 2005. "Impact of the Primary Budget Deficit on the Nominal Long Term Interest Rate Yield on Tax Free Municipal Bonds," MPRA Paper 61411, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ex ante real interest rate yield; Ten-year Treasury notes; Federal budget deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:42:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s12197-017-9424-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.