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Recent empirical evidence on the impact of the primary budget deficit on nominal longer term treasury note interest rate yields

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  • Richard J. Cebula

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the impact of the federal budget deficit on the nominal interest rate yields on seven and ten year treasury notes over the 1992–2003 period. To measure the budget deficit, the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the treasury, is adopted. In a loanable funds model that includes the monetary base, expected inflation, an ex ante real short term interest rate yield and an ex ante real intermediate term interest rate yield, the percentage growth rate of real GDP, and the percentage growth rate of the S&P 500 stock index, instrumental variables estimations using quarterly data reveal that the primary deficit has raised the nominal interest rate yields on both seven year and ten year treasury notes over the study period, raising serious concerns about the currently surging national debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Cebula, 2005. "Recent empirical evidence on the impact of the primary budget deficit on nominal longer term treasury note interest rate yields," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 47-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:gbusec:v:7:y:2005:i:1:p:47-58
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 55269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cebula, Richard J., 2014. "Preliminary Evidence on the Impact of Budget Deficits on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Notes after Allowing for Adoption of Monetary Policies Involving "Quantitative E," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 67(2), pages 181-200.
    3. Richard J. Cebula, 2008. "Small Firm Size and Health Insurance: A Private Enterprise Perspective," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 24(Fall 2008), pages 51-77.
    4. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Investigation into the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Treasury Notes in the U.S," MPRA Paper 57317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Cebula, Richard, 2010. "The Pursuit of an Effective Balanced Budget Amendment," MPRA Paper 60030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Cebula, Richard & Foley, Maggie, 2012. "Recent Evidence on the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Nominal Long Term Mortgage Interest Rate in the U.S," MPRA Paper 53691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Richard J. Cebula, 2013. "An exploratory inquiry into the impact of budget deficits on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, 1973--2012," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1497-1500, November.
    8. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer Term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(1), pages 23-40.
    9. Richard Cebula & Fiorentina Angjellari-Dajci & Maggie Foley, 2014. "An exploratory empirical inquiry into the impact of federal budget deficits on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes over the last half century," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 712-720, October.
    10. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "The Nominal Interest Rate Yield Response to Net Government Borrowing: GLM Estimates, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 57428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Richard Cebula & Pablo Cuellar, 2010. "Recent evidence on the impact of government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 301-307, July.
    12. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "Current Evidence on the Impact of Budget Deficits on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Debt Issues of the U.S. Treasury: An Analysis with Robustness Tests," MPRA Paper 55923, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Alexander, Gigi & Foley, Maggie, 2014. "On the Nominal Interest Rate Yield Response to Net Government Borrowing in the U.S.: An Empirical Analysis with Robustness Tests," MPRA Paper 56968, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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