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Determinants of Potato Prices and its Forecasting: A Case Study of Punjab, Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Anwar, Dr. Mumtaz
  • Shabbir, Dr. Ghulam
  • Shahid, M. Hassam
  • Samreen, Wajiha

Abstract

Potato figures among the principal crop in Pakistan. This paper describes the determinants of potato prices in Punjab, Pakistan. Annual data for the period 1998-2014 were analyzed to identify factors affecting the prices of potato. Results indicated that temperature and world oil prices were significantly affecting price. Seasonal variation of prices are also analyzed in this paper. This paper also use ARIMA and ARMA model to forecast the prices. These results suggest that temperature increase above the limit will lead to increase in prices and support prices also.

Suggested Citation

  • Anwar, Dr. Mumtaz & Shabbir, Dr. Ghulam & Shahid, M. Hassam & Samreen, Wajiha, 2015. "Determinants of Potato Prices and its Forecasting: A Case Study of Punjab, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 66678, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66678
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66678/1/MPRA_paper_66678.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ethridge, Don E. & Neeper, Jarral T., 1987. "Producer Returns from Cotton Strength and Uniformity: An Hedonic Price Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 91-98, July.
    2. Thorne, Fiona S., 2012. "Potato Prices as Affected by Supply and Demand Factors: An Irish Case Study," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122473, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Abedullah & Khuda Bakhsh & Bashir Ahmad, 2006. "Technical Efficiency and its Determinants in Potato Production, Evidence from Punjab, Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, Jul-Dec.
    4. Ethridge, Don E. & Davis, Bob, 1982. "Hedonic Price Estimation For Commodities: An Application To Cotton," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Zakir Hussain Rana & Rao Shafiq-ur-Rehman, 1993. "Policy Imperatives: Stabilisation of Production and Price Swings of Potato and Onion Crops in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 737-749.
    6. Noor P. Khan & Javed Akhtar, 2006. "Competitiveness and Policy Analysis of Potato Production in Different Agro-ecological Zones of Northern Areas: Implications for Food Security and Poverty Alleviation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 1137-1154.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Koblianska, Inna & Seheda, Serhii & Khaietska, Olha & Kalachevska, Larysa & Klochko, Tetiana, 2022. "Determinants of potato producer prices in the peasant-driven market: the Ukrainian case," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(3), June.
    2. Muhammad Aamir, Shahzad, 2017. "Price Forecasting Model for Perishable Commodities: A Case of Tomatoes in Punjab, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 81531, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2017.
    3. Suraksha Baral & Sushmita Bhatta & Sudarshan Adhikari & Saratendra Bajal, 2021. "Production And Marketing Channel Of Potato In Jhapa District, Nepal," Food & Agribusiness Management (FABM), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 42-45, March.
    4. repec:zib:zbseps:v:1:y:2021:i:1:p:17-20 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Whole sale potato prices; pricing factors; Seasonal Variation; determinants of potato; ARIMA & ARMA; forecasting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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