IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/25-3.html

Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Naubert

Abstract

I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian model with irreversible investment and a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using simulated data, I show that the method is able to recover the “true” parameters when using the mixture density network approximation of the initial state distribution. This contrasts with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Naubert, 2025. "Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks," Staff Working Papers 25-3, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-3
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2025-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2025-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/swp2025-3.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34989/swp-2025-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adrien Auclert & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2024. "The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(12), pages 4068-4121.
    2. Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Solving rational expectations models at first order: what Dynare does," Dynare Working Papers 2, CEPREMAP, revised Dec 2025.
    3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    4. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2008. "Limited asset markets participation, monetary policy and (inverted) aggregate demand logic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 162-196, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Caramp & Dejanir Silva, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 716-746, December.
    2. Adrien Auclert & Ludwig Straub & Matthew Rognlie, 2019. "Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model," 2019 Meeting Papers 1449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Sergei K. Egiev, 2025. "Liquidity Traps: A Unified Theory of the Great Depression and the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1424-1551, December.
    4. Mirfatah, Maryam & Gabriel, Vasco J. & Levine, Paul, 2025. "LAMP, informality and monetary growth rules in an emerging economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Rigato, Rodolfo Dinis, 2026. "The great redistribution that wasn’t: a HANK-OLG perspective on monetary policy," Working Paper Series 3197, European Central Bank.
    6. Corina Boar & Matthew Knowles & Kjetil Storesletten & Yicheng Wang, 2025. "Quantifying the Macroeconomic Impact of Credit Expansions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1913-1928, December.
    7. Katsuhiro Oshima, 2019. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Monetary Policy, and Stock Price Volatility," KIER Working Papers 1013, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    8. Boehl, Gregor, 2022. "Efficient solution and computation of models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2020. "Understanding HANK: Insights From a PRANK," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1113-1158, May.
    10. Macaulay, Alistair, 2021. "The attention trap: Rational inattention, inequality, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. García, Benjamín & Giarda, Mario & Lizama, Carlos & Rojas, Ignacio, 2024. "Transmission mechanisms in HANK: An application to Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(3).
    12. Alisdair McKay & Christian K. Wolf, 2023. "What Can Time‐Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1695-1725, September.
    13. Kudlyak, Marianna & Faia, Ester & Shabalina, Ekaterina, 2021. "Dynamic Labor Reallocation with Heterogeneous Skills and Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 16008, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Shiou‐Yen Chu, 2022. "Markups, inequality and monetary‐fiscal policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 367-395, September.
    15. Marco Bellifemine & Adrien Couturier & Rustam Jamilov, 2022. "The Regional Keynesian Cross," Economics Series Working Papers 995, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Motta, Giorgio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2015. "Money Targeting, Heterogeneous Agents, And Dynamic Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 288-310, March.
    17. Hagedorn, Marcus & Luo, Jinfeng & Manovskii, Iourii & Mitman, Kurt, 2019. "Forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-23.
    18. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park & Choongryul Yang, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of capital tax rate changes," CESifo Working Paper Series 7630, CESifo.
    19. Horvath, Roman & Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2021. "Equity premium and monetary policy in a model with limited asset market participation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 430-440.
    20. repec:cam:camjip:2507 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.