IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/25-3.html

Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Naubert

Abstract

I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian model with irreversible investment and a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using simulated data, I show that the method is able to recover the “true” parameters when using the mixture density network approximation of the initial state distribution. This contrasts with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Naubert, 2025. "Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks," Staff Working Papers 25-3, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-3
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2025-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2025-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/swp2025-3.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34989/swp-2025-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Solving rational expectations models at first order: what Dynare does," Dynare Working Papers 2, CEPREMAP, revised Dec 2025.
    2. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    3. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2008. "Limited asset markets participation, monetary policy and (inverted) aggregate demand logic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 162-196, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mirfatah, Maryam & Gabriel, Vasco J. & Levine, Paul, 2025. "LAMP, informality and monetary growth rules in an emerging economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Katsuhiro Oshima, 2019. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Monetary Policy, and Stock Price Volatility," KIER Working Papers 1013, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Boehl, Gregor, 2022. "Efficient solution and computation of models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Shiou‐Yen Chu, 2022. "Markups, inequality and monetary‐fiscal policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 367-395, September.
    5. Motta, Giorgio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2015. "Money Targeting, Heterogeneous Agents, And Dynamic Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 288-310, March.
    6. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park & Choongryul Yang, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of capital tax rate changes," CESifo Working Paper Series 7630, CESifo.
    7. Horvath, Roman & Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2021. "Equity premium and monetary policy in a model with limited asset market participation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 430-440.
    8. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bhatnagar, Aryaman, 2023. "Monetary policy with non-Ricardian households," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 12-26.
    10. Giorgio Motta & Patrizio Tirelli, 2013. "Limited Asset Market Participation, Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 261, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    11. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2024. "Solving and analyzing DSGE models in the frequency domain," IMFS Working Paper Series 207, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    12. Bernstein, Joshua, 2021. "A model of state-dependent monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 904-917.
    13. Nicolas Caramp & Dejanir Silva, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 716-746, December.
    14. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Sergei K. Egiev, 2025. "Liquidity Traps: A Unified Theory of the Great Depression and the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1424-1551, December.
    15. William Gatt & Noel Rapa & Luca Brugnolini, 2020. "MEDSEA-FIN A DSGE model of the Maltese economy with housing and financial frictions," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2020, Central Bank of Malta.
    16. Adrien Auclert & Ludwig Straub & Matthew Rognlie, 2019. "Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model," 2019 Meeting Papers 1449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Jae Won Lee & Seunghyeon Lee, 2025. "Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multisector Economy: The Role of Risk-Sharing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    18. Giambattista, Eric & Pennings, Steven, 2017. "When is the government transfer multiplier large?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 525-543.
    19. Jung, Yongseung, 2019. "What drives business cycles in Korea?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    20. Lorant Kaszab, 2016. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and Labor Tax Cut Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 353-390, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.