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Redistribution and Fiscal Uncertainty Shocks

Author

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  • Hikaru Saijo

    (University of California, Santa Cruz (E-mail: hsaijo@ucsc.edu))

Abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of an uncertainty shock about fiscal policy in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. Motivated by the observation that many fiscal policies are redistributive and that a sizable fraction of U.S. households do not own capital, I introduce household heterogeneity in the form of limited capital market participation. I show that household heterogeneity significantly magnifies the aggregate effect and induces co-movement of macroeconomic variables in a contraction that is generated by a fiscal uncertainty shock. This is because the limited capital market participation model captures individual uncertainty about redistribution that is absent in representative agent models. When agents are ambiguity averse, this uncertainty about redistribution has first-order effects because it shows up as heterogeneous worst-case scenarios. As a result, the model matches the empirical responses of macro variables to fiscal uncertainty shocks better than the representative agent counterpart.

Suggested Citation

  • Hikaru Saijo, 2018. "Redistribution and Fiscal Uncertainty Shocks," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:18-e-15
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    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/18-E-15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Minjoon Lee & Jinhui Bai & Fudong Zhang & Ruediger Bachmann, 2014. "The Welfare Costs of Fiscal Uncertainty: a Quantitative Evaluation," 2014 Meeting Papers 744, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(2), pages 810-854.
    3. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
    4. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2017. "Level and Volatility Shocks to Fiscal Policy: Term Structure Implications," 2017 Meeting Papers 258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Tobias Broer & Per Krusell & Niels-Jakob Hansen & Erik Oberg, 2015. "The New Keynesian Transmission Channel," 2015 Meeting Papers 941, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Policy risk and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 68-85.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Redistribution and Fiscal Uncertainty Shocks
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2018-11-08 23:01:13

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    Cited by:

    1. Hikaru Saijo, 2019. "Technology Shocks and Hours Revisited: Evidence from Household Data," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 347-362, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy uncertainty; ambiguity; limited stock market participation; redistribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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