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Nowcasting Real GDP Growth in The Bahamas

Author

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  • Saboin, José Luis
  • Guerrero, Diego
  • Mazzocca, Angelo

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel real GDP growth nowcasting strategy based on a distribution of nowcast values derived from a large dataset and multiple variable combinations, specifications and estimators. We exploit structured and unstructured data from The Bahamas, using thirteen estimators from the econometrics and machine learning literature. The study begins describing our dataset with over three hundred variables from the national statistics system, satellite nighttime lights data for key geographic locations in the archipelago, and internet search trends. Next, we nowcast the seasonally-adjusted annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of real gross domestic product using multiple combinations of variables, specifications and estimators. Overall, the ensemble method produces a distribution of nowcasts that outperform a human-designed benchmark. This paper contributes a novel idea of exploiting a distribution of estimates rather than point-values from a determined specification or estimator.

Suggested Citation

  • Saboin, José Luis & Guerrero, Diego & Mazzocca, Angelo, 2026. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth in The Bahamas," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 14635, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:14635
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0014052
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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