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GDP-Flash Estimates: An International Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Wegmuller
  • Jan P.A.M. Jacobs
  • Marc Burri

Abstract

We compile a harmonised real-time vintage dataset of quarterly GDP releases for 12 countries as well as the European Union and euro area aggregates, and evaluate the quality of flash estimates relative to later releases and more mature benchmarks. We document substantial cross-country heterogeneity in revision behaviour, with revision magnitudes increasing markedly during periods of elevated volatility. We further show that revision-aware state-space methods can, in some settings and depending on the evaluation benchmark, improve upon the raw flash release as an approximation to more mature GDP growth. Overall, the results highlight the trade-off between timeliness and precision in early national-accounts data and show that the real-time reliability of flash GDP depends importantly on benchmark choice, revision dynamics, and national compilation practices.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Wegmuller & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Marc Burri, 2026. "GDP-Flash Estimates: An International Assessment," CAMA Working Papers 2026-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-26
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2026-04/26_2026_Wegmuller_Jacobs_Burri.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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