IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kud/epruwp/05-04.html

Assessing the Welfare Cost of a Fixed Exchange-Rate Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Niels Arne Dam

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Jesper Gregers Linaa

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

This paper performs a welfare analysis based on the hypothetical scenario that Denmark gave up its peg and started conducting monetary policy according to a Taylor rule. For this we rely on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy that was estimated on Danish data using Bayesian methods. We obtain the result that the gain in welfare is equivalent to a permanent increase of around 0.8 pct in the level of consumption. Examining a range of alternative scenarios does not change this conclusion, unless we assume a degree of policy errors under the Taylor rule that is substantially larger than those estimated by other studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Niels Arne Dam & Jesper Gregers Linaa, 2005. "Assessing the Welfare Cost of a Fixed Exchange-Rate Policy," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-04, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:05-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web.econ.ku.dk/epru/files/wp/wp-05-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
    2. Kim, Jinill & Kim, Sunghyun Henry, 2003. "Spurious welfare reversals in international business cycle models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 471-500, August.
    3. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
    4. Nooman Rebei & Steven Ambler & Ali Dib, 2004. "Optimal Taylor Rules in an Estimated Model of a Small Open Economy," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 627, Econometric Society.
    5. Paul R. Bergin, 2017. "How Well Can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics Explain the Exchange Rate and Current Account?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 5, pages 117-152, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Uribe, Martín & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 2004. "Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the US Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Benigno, Gianluca, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    9. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: The role of money and nominal rigidities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1547-1583, October.
    10. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
    11. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
    12. Niels Arne Dam & Jesper Gregers Linaa, 2005. "What Drives Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate?," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-02, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    13. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Erratum to "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market": [Journal of International Economics 50 (2000) 214-244]," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 207-208, October.
    14. Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Henry Kim & Ernst Schaumburg & Christopher A. Sims, 2003. "Calculating and using second order accurate solutions of discrete time dynamic equilibrium models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Ernst Schaumburg & Christopher A. Sims, 2003. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solutions of Discrete Time," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000284, UCLA Department of Economics.
    16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    17. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    18. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    19. Paul R. Bergin, 2017. "Putting the “New Open Economy Macroeconomics” to a Test," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 4, pages 79-115, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niels Arne Dam & Jesper Gregers Linaa, 2005. "What Drives Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate?," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-02, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Maral Kichian & Ali Dib & Carlos de Resende, 2010. "Optimized Monetary Policy Rules in Multi-Sector Small Open Economies: The Role of Real Rigidities," 2010 Meeting Papers 184, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Deming Luo & Stephen Ferris, 2008. "Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy with Exchange Rate Imperfections," Carleton Economic Papers 08-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    4. Nooman Rebei & Steven Ambler & Ali Dib, 2004. "Optimal Taylor Rules in an Estimated Model of a Small Open Economy," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 627, Econometric Society.
    5. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 159-182.
    7. Eva Ortega & Nooman Rebei, 2006. "The Welfare Implications of Inflation versus Price-Level Targeting in a Two-Sector, Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 06-12, Bank of Canada.
    8. Divino, Jose Angelo, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy for a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 352-358, March.
    9. Wang, Jian, 2010. "Home bias, exchange rate disconnect, and optimal exchange rate policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 55-78, February.
    10. Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2008. "Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262123061, December.
    11. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    12. Uribe, Martín & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 2004. "Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the US Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Gregory Erin Givens, 2006. "Revisiting the Delegation Problem in a Sticky Price and Wage Economy," Working Papers 200601, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    14. Gregory De Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Yuliya Rychalovska & Rafael Wouters, 2017. "An estimated two-country EA-US model with limited exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Research 317, National Bank of Belgium.
    15. Stefan RIED, 2010. "New Keynesian Open Economy Models versus the Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics," EcoMod2004 330600119, EcoMod.
    16. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2004. "The Research Agenda: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martín Uribe on Policy Evaluation in Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), November.
    17. M. Marzo, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Simple Distorted Economy," Working Papers 511, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    18. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2006. "Targeting inflation and the fiscal balance : what is the optimal policy mix?," Research Working Paper RWP 06-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    19. Zoundi, Zakaria, 2024. "Wells or Welfare? Macroeconomic implications of the Canadian oil subsidy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Marattin, Luigi & Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2013. "Distortionary tax instruments and implementable monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 219-243.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:05-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Hoffmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epcbsdk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.