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Assessing the Welfare Cost of a Fixed Exchange-Rate Policy

  • Niels Arne Dam

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Jesper Gregers Linaa

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

This paper performs a welfare analysis based on the hypothetical scenario that Denmark gave up its peg and started conducting monetary policy according to a Taylor rule. For this we rely on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy that was estimated on Danish data using Bayesian methods. We obtain the result that the gain in welfare is equivalent to a permanent increase of around 0.8 pct in the level of consumption. Examining a range of alternative scenarios does not change this conclusion, unless we assume a degree of policy errors under the Taylor rule that is substantially larger than those estimated by other studies.

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File URL: http://www.econ.ku.dk/epru/files/wp/wp-05-04.pdf
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Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 05-04.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:05-04
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  1. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
  2. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
  3. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May.
  4. Henry Kim & Jinill Kim & Ernst Schaumburg & Christopher A. Sims, 2005. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solutions of Discrete Time Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0505, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  5. Jinill Kim and Sunghyun Henry Kim, 2001. "Spurious Welfare Reversals in International Business Cycle Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 3, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Niels Arne Dam & Jesper Gregers Linaa, 2005. "What Drives Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate?," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-02, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  7. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Steve Ambler & Ali Dib & Nooman Rebei, 2004. "Optimal Taylor Rules in an Estimated Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 04-36, Bank of Canada.
  9. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," NBER Working Papers 10253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the U.S. Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 10724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: The role of money and nominal rigidities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1547-1583, October.
  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  15. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  16. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
  17. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  18. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
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