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What Drives Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate?

Author

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  • Niels Arne Dam

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Jesper Gregers Linaa

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

We decompose the Danish business cycle into ten structural shocks using an open-economy DSGE model with infrequent determination of prices and wages which we estimate with Bayesian techniques. Consistent with the Danish monetary policy regime, we formulate an imperfect peg on the foreign exchange rate and analyse the resulting monetary transmission mechanism. We find that the Danish business cycle is dominated by stochastic movements in the labour supply in the long term, while demand shocks play a major role in the short term. Remarkably, the role of technology is negligible, and foreign factors only contribute little to the Danish business cycle, especially in the long term. With respect to the estimation, we generally find believable estimates although the degree of price stickiness is remarkably high.

Suggested Citation

  • Niels Arne Dam & Jesper Gregers Linaa, 2005. "What Drives Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate?," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-02, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:05-02
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    File URL: http://web.econ.ku.dk/epru/files/wp/wp-05-02.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sigitas Karpavicius, 2009. "The Effects of Fiscal Instruments on the Economy of Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 4, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. Søren Ravn & Morten Spange, 2014. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 451-476, July.
    3. Sigitas Karpavicius & Igor Vetlov, 2008. "Personal Income Tax Reform in Lithuania: Macroeconomic and Welfare Implications," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 2, Bank of Lithuania.
    4. Niels Arne Dam & Jesper Gregers Linaa, 2005. "Assessing the Welfare Cost of a Fixed Exchange-Rate Policy," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-04, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    5. O. Malakhovskaya., 2016. "DSGE-based forecasting: What should our perspective be?," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 12.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    open economy; peg; business cycles; Bayesian estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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