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Nominal income as an intermediate target for monetary policy

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  • Timonen, Jouni

Abstract

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää nimellisen kokonaistuotannon käyttöä rahapolitiikan välitavoitteena.Aluksi selvitetään rahapolitiikan sääntöjen ja välitavoitteiden logiikkaa.Sitten tarkastellaan teoreettisia tutkimuksia, jotka vertaavat raha-aggregaattien ja nimellisen BKT:n käyttöä rahapolitiikan välitavoitteena. Tämän jälkeen verrataan empiirisesti tutkittujen erilaisten nimellisen BKT:n sääntöjen ominaisuuksia.Empiirisessä osassa simuloidaan McCallumin sääntö, liitettynä yhden yhtälön mallilla nimellisen BKT:n laskemiseksi.McCallumin sääntö simuloidaan rahaperustan lisäksi raha-aggregaateilla M1 ja M2 sekä muutellen mallien parametrejä. Teoreettisten tutkimusten mukaan ei voida yksinkertaistaa, että nimellisen BKT:n tai raha--aggregaatin sääntö olisi kaikissa tilanteissa aina parempi kuin toinen.Empiiristen tutkimusten mukaan nimellisen BKT:n säännöt toimivat kuitenkin paremmin kuin esimerkiksi raha-aggregaatti-säännöt.Monia erilaisia nimellisen BKT:n sääntöjä on esitetty kirjallisuudessa, jotka näyttäisivät toimivan suhteellisen hyvin mitattuna hintatason ja kokonaistuotannon stabiilisuudella.Yhtä ylivertaista sääntöä ei kuitenkaan voida nostaa esiin.Suomen aineistolla tehdyn simuloinnin mukaan McCallumin sääntö rahaperustaa tai M1:tä käyttäen ei aikaansaa simuloitua nimellistä BKT:tä seuraamaan asetettua tavoiteuraansa. M2:ta käyttäen tulokset jossakin määrin parantuvat.

Suggested Citation

  • Timonen, Jouni, 1995. "Nominal income as an intermediate target for monetary policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/1995, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1995_021
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