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Bad Luck or Bad Management? Emerging Banking Market Experience

  • Jiri Podpiera
  • Laurent Weill

A large number of bank failures occurred in transition countries during the 1990s and at the beginning of the 2000s. These failures were related to increases in non-performing loans and deteriorated cost efficiency of banks. This paper addresses the question of the causality between non-performing loans and cost efficiency in order to examine whether either of these factors is the deep determinant of bank failures. We extend the Granger causality model developed by Berger and DeYoung (1997) by applying GMM dynamic panel estimators on a panel of Czech banks between 1994 and 2005. Our findings support the “bad management†hypothesis, according to which deteriorations in cost efficiency precede increases in non-performing loans, and reject the “bad luck†hypothesis, which predicts the reverse causality.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2007/5.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/5
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  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  2. Bonin, John P. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Wachtel, Paul, 2004. "Bank performance, efficiency and ownership in transitition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Anca Podpiera & Jiri Podpiera, 2005. "Deteriorating Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks Signals an Increasing Risk of Failure," Working Papers 2005/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Allen N. Berger & Robert DeYoung, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  6. Allen N. Berger & John H. Leusner & John Mingo, 1994. "The efficiency of bank branches," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Richard S. BARR & Lawrence M. SEIFORD & Thomas F. SIEMS, 1994. "Forecasting Bank Failure : A Non-Parametric Frontier Estimation Approach," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1994041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  8. Williams, Jonathan, 2004. "Determining management behaviour in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2427-2460, October.
  9. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995. "Evaluating the efficiency of commercial banks: does our view of what banks do matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 39-52.
  10. Laurent Weill, 2003. "Banking efficiency in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(3), pages 569-592, 09.
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