IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Bank systemic risk and the business cycle: An empirical investigation using Canadian data

  • Christian Calmès

    ()

    (Chaire d'information financière et organisationnelle ESG-UQAM, Laboratory for Research in Statistics and Probability, Université du Québec (Outaouais))

  • Raymond Théoret

    ()

    (Chaire d'information financière et organisationnelle ESG-UQAM, Université du Québec (Montréal), Université du Québec (Outaouais))

Since financial institutions are subjected to increasingly tighter requirements regarding the way they conduct their loan business, we could assume that built-in regulatory pressures induce them to adopt collective business strategies, with the unintended consequence of persistently weakening the banking system ability to cope with external shocks. Surprisingly, we find rather the opposite. This paper documents how banks, as a group, react to macroeconomic risk and uncertainty, and more specifically the way banks systemic behaviour evolves over the business cycle. Adopting the methodology of Beaudry et al. (2001), our results clearly indicate that the dispersion across banks traditional portfolios has actually increased through time. We introduce an estimation procedure based on EGARCH and re-fine Baum et al. (2002, 2004, 2009) and Quagliariello (2007, 2009) framework to analyze the question in the new industry context, i.e. shadow banking. Consistent with finance theory, we first confirm that banks tend to behave homogeneously vis-à-vis macroeconomic uncertainty. Additionally, we find that the cross-sectional dispersions of loans to assets and non-traditional activities shrink essentially during downturns, when the resilience of the banking system is at its lowest. Our results also indicate that banks herd-like behaviour remains predominantly a cyclical phenomenon, almost unaffected by the new banking environment. Most importantly however, the cross-sectional dispersion of market-oriented ac-tivities appears to be both more volatile and sensitive to the business cycle than the dispersion of the traditional banking business lines.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.repad.org/ca/qc/uq/uqo/dsa/2011-09.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Département des sciences administratives, UQO in its series RePAd Working Paper Series with number UQO-DSA-wp322011.

as
in new window

Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 19 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pqs:wpaper:322011
Contact details of provider: Postal: Pavillon Lucien Brault, 101 rue Saint Jean-Bosco, Gatineau (Québec) J8Y 3G5
Phone: (819) 595-3900
Fax: (819) 773-1747
Web page: http://www.repad.org/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Tobias Adrian, 2007. "Measuring risk in the hedge fund sector," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Mar).
  2. Mario Quagliariello, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: the case of Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 323-336.
  3. Uhde, André & Michalak, Tobias C., 2010. "Securitization and systematic risk in European banking: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3061-3077, December.
  4. Wagner, Wolf, 2007. "The liquidity of bank assets and banking stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 121-139, January.
  5. Zoltan Pozsar & Tobias Adrian & Adam Ashcraft & Hayley Boesky, 2010. "Shadow banking," Staff Reports 458, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  7. Stiroh, Kevin J. & Rumble, Adrienne, 2006. "The dark side of diversification: The case of US financial holding companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2131-2161, August.
  8. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May.
  9. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2005. "The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behaviour to macroeconomic uncertainty," Working Papers 2005_27, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  10. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415.
  11. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "A Model of Shadow Banking," Working Papers 576, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  12. O. De Jonghe, 2009. "Back to the Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/579, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  13. Cebenoyan, A. Sinan & Strahan, Philip E., 2004. "Risk management, capital structure and lending at banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 19-43, January.
  14. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Ozkan, Neslihan, 2009. "The second moments matter: The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the allocation of loanable funds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 87-89, February.
  15. Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Christopher F Baum, 2002. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Bank Lending Behavior," Research Papers 2002_02, University of Liverpool Management School.
  16. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  17. Christian Calmès, 2004. "Regulatory Changes and Financial Structure: The Case of Canada," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(I), pages 1-35, March.
  18. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Diversification in banking: is noninterest income the answer?," Staff Reports 154, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  19. Jacob A. Bikker & Haixia Hu, 2002. "Cyclical patterns in profits, provisioning and lending of banks and procyclicality of the new Basel capital requirements," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 143-175.
  20. Wagner, W.B., 2006. "Diversification at Financial Institutions and Systemic Crises," Discussion Paper 2006-71, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  21. Hwang, Soosung & Salmon, Mark, 2004. "Market Stress and Herding," CEPR Discussion Papers 4340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Nijskens, Rob & Wagner, Wolf, 2011. "Credit risk transfer activities and systemic risk: How banks became less risky individually but posed greater risks to the financial system at the same time," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1391-1398, June.
  23. Charles Calomiris & Joseph Mason, 2004. "Credit Card Securitization and Regulatory Arbitrage," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 5-27, August.
  24. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
  25. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  26. Christian Calmès & Ying Liu, 2005. "Financial Structure Change and Banking Income: a Canada-U.S. Comparison," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp0302005, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
  27. Wagner, Wolf, 2008. "The homogenization of the financial system and financial crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 330-356, July.
  28. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 550-54, August.
  29. Vives, Xavier, 1996. "Social learning and rational expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 589-601, April.
  30. J.A. Bikker & P.A.J. Metzemakers, 2002. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Research Series Supervision (discontinued) 50, Netherlands Central Bank, Directorate Supervision.
  31. Brent Ambrose & Michael LaCour-Little & Anthony Sanders, 2005. "Does Regulatory Capital Arbitrage, Reputation, or Asymmetric Information Drive Securitization?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 113-133, October.
  32. Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2010. "The impact of off-balance-sheet activities on banks returns: An application of the ARCH-M to Canadian data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1719-1728, July.
  33. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  34. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Laetitia Lepetit & Emmanuelle Nys & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2008. "Bank income structure and risk: An empirical analysis of European banks," Post-Print hal-00844820, HAL.
  36. Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Constructing Instruments for Regressions with Measurement Error when no Additional Data are Available, with an Application to Patents and R&D," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1201-1214, September.
  37. Ryuichi Nakagawa & Hirofumi Uchida, 2011. "Herd Behaviour by Japanese Banks after Financial Deregulation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(312), pages 618-636, October.
  38. Michael M. Hutchison, . "European Banking Distress and EMU: Institutional and Macroeconomic Risks," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-04, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  39. Cardone-Riportella, Clara & Samaniego-Medina, Reyes & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio, 2010. "What drives bank securitisation? The Spanish experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2639-2651, November.
  40. Michael D. Bordo & Angela Redish & Hugh Rockoff, 2011. "Why didn't Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or ...)?," NBER Working Papers 17312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2001. "Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 139-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Hyytinen, Ari & Kuosa, Iikka & Takalo, Tuomas, 2002. "Law of finance: Evidence from Finland," Research Discussion Papers 8/2002, Bank of Finland.
  43. Adrian Pagan, 1985. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 741, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  44. Loutskina, Elena, 2011. "The role of securitization in bank liquidity and funding management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 663-684, June.
  45. David T. Llewellyn, 2002. "An analysis of the causes of recent banking crises," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 152-175, June.
  46. Pecchenino, Rowena A., 1998. "Risk averse bank managers: Exogenous shocks, portfolio reallocations and market spillovers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 161-174, February.
  47. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  48. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003. "Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66.
  49. Selody, Jack, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 554-57, August.
  50. Celine Gauthier & Alfred Lehar & Moez Souissi, 2010. "Macroprudential Regulation and Systemic Capital Requirements," Working Papers 10-4, Bank of Canada.
  51. Antoine Martin & Bruno M. Parigi, 2013. "Bank Capital Regulation and Structured Finance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 87-119, 02.
  52. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  53. Paul Beaudry & Mustafa Caglayan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2001. "Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices, and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using U.K. Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 648-662, June.
  54. Baele, Lieven & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2007. "Does the stock market value bank diversification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1999-2023, July.
  55. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
  56. John Huizinga, 1993. "Inflation uncertainty, relative price uncertainty, and investment in U.S. manufacturing," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 521-557.
  57. Huizinga, John, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 521-49, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pqs:wpaper:322011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Calmes)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.