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Market-oriented banking, financial stability and macro-prudential indicators of leverage

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  • Calmès, Christian
  • Théoret, Raymond

Abstract

In order to complement the macro-prudential framework introduced in Basel III, we propose a new breed of indicators based on the degree of leverage which helps track the time-varying dimension of bank systemic risk—a key aspect of financial stability. Given the new sources of liquidity generated by off-balance-sheet activities, time-varying indicators of leverage become more informative of the leverage dynamics. We introduce a Kalman filter procedure to study such elasticity-based measures of broad leverage. This approach enables the detection of the build-up of financial imbalances—as measured by the increase in bank risk—years before what the traditional assets to equity ratio predicts. Most elasticity measures we propose appear in line with the historical episodes, well tracking the cyclical pattern of leverage. Importantly, the degree of total leverage suggests that market-oriented banking exerts a stronger influence on leverage during expansion periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2013. "Market-oriented banking, financial stability and macro-prudential indicators of leverage," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 13-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:13-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2013.07.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2016. "Financial markets development, business cycles, and bank risk in South America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 472-484.
    2. Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2014. "Bank systemic risk and macroeconomic shocks: Canadian and U.S. evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 388-402.
    3. Malgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipien & Iwona Kowalska & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2015. "The impact of capital on lending in publicly-traded and privately- held banks in the EU," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 72015, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    4. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Financial markets development and bank risk: Experience from Thailand during 1990–2012," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 67-88.
    5. Renata Karkowska, 2015. "The role of investment banking in systemic risk profiles. Evidence from a panel of EU banking sectors," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 22015, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    6. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "The effect of financial market development on bank risk: evidence from Southeast Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-260.
    7. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret & François-Éric Racicot, 2014. "La titrisation aux États-Unis et au Canada," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp032014, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leverage; Financial stability; Market-oriented banking; Liquidity; Basel III; Kalman filter;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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