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The procyclicality of Basel III leverage: Elasticity-based indicators and the Kalman filter

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Calmès

    (Chaire d'information financière et organisationnelle ESG-UQAM, Laboratory for Research in Statistics and Probability, Université du Québec (Outaouais))

  • Raymond Théoret

    (Chaire d'information financière et organisationnelle ESG-UQAM, Université du Québec (Montréal), Université du Québec (Outaouais))

Abstract

Traditional leverage ratios assume that bank equity captures all changes in asset values. However, in the context of market-oriented banking, capital can be funded by additional debt or asset sales without directly influencing equity. Given the new sources of liquidity generated by off-balance-sheet (OBS), time-varying indicators of leverage are better suited to capture the dynamics of aggregate leverage. In this paper, we introduce a Kalman filter procedure to study such elasticity-based measures of broad leverage. This approach enables the detection of the build-up in bank risk years before what the traditional assets to equity ratio predicts. Most elasticity measures appear in line with the historical episodes, well tracking the cyclical pattern of leverage. Importantly, the degree of total leverage suggests that OBS banking exerts a stronger influence on leverage during expansion periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2012. "The procyclicality of Basel III leverage: Elasticity-based indicators and the Kalman filter," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp012012, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    • Handle: RePEc:pqs:wpaper:012012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel III; Banking stability; Macroprudential policy; Herding; Macroeconomic uncertainty.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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