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The Relation Between Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Expected Performance Of the Economy

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  • Jean Sepulveda-Umanzor

Abstract

By using data from surveys of expectations, it is shown that macroeconomic uncertainty, measured by the standard deviation of the expected output growth, the expected unemployment rate, and the expected inflation rate, is negatively related to the expected performance of the economy, proxied by the expected growth rate of output. That is, forward-looking agents are more uncertain about the future development of output, unemployment, and inflation when the growth rate of output is expected to fall, and they are less uncertain when this growth rate is expected to increase. The findings indicate that macroeconomic polices would have asymmetric effects on output depending upon how economic agents expect the economy to perform in the near future

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Sepulveda-Umanzor, 2004. "The Relation Between Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Expected Performance Of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:304
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    File URL: http://repec.org/esLATM04/up.10633.1082126441.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
    5. Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie & Zaporowski, Mark, 1988. "Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 233-248, May.
    6. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
    7. Logue, Dennis E & Willett, Thomas D, 1976. "A Note on the Relation between the Rate and Variability of Inflation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(17), pages 151-158, May.
    8. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
    9. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
    10. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
    11. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-392, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Quagliariello, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: the case of Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 323-336.
    2. Kjellberg, David & Post, Erik, 2007. "A Critical Look at Measures of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2007:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    3. Stangl, Anna, 2009. "Essays on the Measurement of Economic Expectations," Munich Dissertations in Economics 9823, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    4. Bryane Michael & Maja Popov, 2016. "The Failure of Theory to Predict the Way Public Sector Organisation Responds to its Organisational Environment and the Need for a Mosaic-View of Organisational Theory," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 55-75, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic uncertainty; expectations; expected macroeconomic performance;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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