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Real Sector Shocks and Monetary Policy Responses in a in a financially vulnerable Emerging Economy

  • Ramkishen S. Rajan

    ()

  • Makarand Parulkar

    ()

When analyzing the appropriate response for monetary policy during a currency crisis it is important to keep in mind two distinct channels: (a) the impact of raising interest rates on exchange rates; and (b) the direct impact of exchange rate changes on output. The first pertains to the monetary side of the economy as given by the interest parity condition, while the second pertains to the real side of the economy. The interaction between these two legs of the economy derives the equilibrium output and exchange rate in the economy. This paper expands on the Aghion,Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000) monetary model, with nominal rigidities and foreign currency debt playing to examine the interaction between the real and monetary sides of the economy to analyze the impact of monetary policy on the real economy. To preview the main conclusion, we find that the impact of monetary policy on exchange rate and output depends largely on the shape of the W-curve, which is theoretically ambiguous. This in turn suggests that the appropriate monetary policy response could vary between countries at any point in time, or for a particular country between two different periods.

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Paper provided by eSocialSciences in its series Working Papers with number id:354.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:354
Note: Working Papers
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  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2000. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis Identification Through Heteroscedasticity," Discussion Papers in Economics 00/11, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2002.
  2. Willett, Thomas D., 2000. "Managing financial crises: the experience in East Asia A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 69-79, December.
  3. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crisis; The Case of Asia," IMF Working Papers 98/170, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Ratna Sahay & Deepak Mishra & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/230, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
  6. Boorman, Jack & Lane, Timothy & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Bulir, Ales & Ghosh, Atish R. & Hamann, Javier & Mourmouras, Alex & Phillips, Steven, 2000. "Managing financial crises: the experience in East Asia," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-67, December.
  7. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
  8. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  9. Antonio Spilimbergo & Rupa Duttagupta, 2000. "What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 00/200, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Michael M Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2002. "Output Costs of Currency and Balance of Payments Crises in Emerging Markets," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2-3), pages 27-44, September.
  11. Drazen, Allan & Hubrich, Stefan, 2003. "Mixed Signals in Defending the Exchange Rate: What do the Data Say?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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