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Real Sector Shocks and Monetary Policy Responses in a in a financially vulnerable Emerging Economy

  • Ramkishen S. Rajan

    ()

  • Makarand Parulkar

    ()

When analyzing the appropriate response for monetary policy during a currency crisis it is important to keep in mind two distinct channels: (a) the impact of raising interest rates on exchange rates; and (b) the direct impact of exchange rate changes on output. The first pertains to the monetary side of the economy as given by the interest parity condition, while the second pertains to the real side of the economy. The interaction between these two legs of the economy derives the equilibrium output and exchange rate in the economy. This paper expands on the Aghion,Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000) monetary model, with nominal rigidities and foreign currency debt playing to examine the interaction between the real and monetary sides of the economy to analyze the impact of monetary policy on the real economy. To preview the main conclusion, we find that the impact of monetary policy on exchange rate and output depends largely on the shape of the W-curve, which is theoretically ambiguous. This in turn suggests that the appropriate monetary policy response could vary between countries at any point in time, or for a particular country between two different periods.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:354
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  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity," CEIS Research Paper 23, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  2. Ratna Sahay & Deepak Mishra & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/230, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Duttagupta, Rupa & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2003. "What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
  5. Graham Bird & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2004. "Does devaluation lead to economic recovery or contraction? Theory and policy with reference to Thailand," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 141-156.
  6. Peter J. Montiel, 2003. "Tight Money in a Post-Crisis Defense of the Exchange Rate: What Have We Learned?," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23.
  7. Baig, Taimur & Goldfajn, Ilan, 2002. "Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 92-112, February.
  8. Drazen, Allan & Hubrich, Stefan, 2003. "Mixed Signals in Defending the Exchange Rate: What do the Data Say?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Timothy D. Lane & A. Javier Hamann & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Ales Bulir & Steven T Phillips & Atish R. Ghosh & Alex Mourmouras & Jack Boorman, 2000. "Managing Financial Crises; The Experience in East Asia," IMF Working Papers 00/107, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 1999. "A Simple Model of Monetary Pollicy and Currency Crises," Working Papers 99.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  11. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
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