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Causal relation between interest and exchange rates in the Asian currency crisis

  • Choi, In
  • Park, Daekeun
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This paper studies the causal relationship between interest rates and exchange rates in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand during the period bordering the 1997 Asian currency crisis to investigate the appropriateness of tight monetary policy in stabilizing exchange rates. We employ VAR models consisting of spot rates, forward rates and interest rate differentials to study the causal relations. In particular, we test for long-run causality as well as short-run causality by taking into account non-stationarity of the involved variables and the cointegrating relations among them. The test results show that except for some subsamples for Malaysia there is no evidence that interest rate differentials caused spot exchange rates at all horizons. Considering the ineffectiveness of high interest rates in stabilizing exchange rates and the high economic cost associated with keeping high interest rates for an extended time period, one may rightfully question the appropriateness of tight monetary policy during the Asian currency crisis.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

Volume (Year): 20 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 435-452

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Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:20:y:2008:i:3:p:435-452
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

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  1. Choi, In, 1994. "Durbin-Hausman tests for cointegration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 467-480, March.
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  5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
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  12. Dekle, Robert & Hsiao, Cheng & Wang, Siyan, 2002. "High Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Stabilization in Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand: An Empirical Investigation of the Traditional and Revisionist Views," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 64-78, February.
  13. Byeongseon, Seo, 1998. "Statistical inference on cointegration rank in error correction models with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 339-385, August.
  14. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 977, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  16. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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