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Real Effective Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Threshold Effects, and Aggregate Investment – Evidence from Latin American Countries

  • Bianca Clausen

    ()

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between real effective exchange rate uncertainty and aggregate investment in six Latin American economies. Its main contributions are that it explicitly tests for linear as well as non-linear effects of uncertainty in a time-series model that allows the country-specific interpretation. A (G)ARCH-based uncertainty measure is constructed for each country which is then included in a GMM time-series model that accounts for the endogeneity of the variables. When accounting for threshold effects, this paper finds that high levels of real effective exchange rate uncertainty affect aggregate investment negatively in all countries in the sample.

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File URL: http://www.iwp.uni-koeln.de/DE/Publikationen/dp/dp02_08.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany in its series IWP Discussion Paper Series with number 02/2008.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:kln:iwpdip:dp02/08
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  1. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  2. César Calderón & Luis Servén, 2004. "The Effects of Infrastructure Development on Growth and Income Distribution," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 270, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Serven, Luis, 1998. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment in developing countries - an empirical investigation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2035, The World Bank.
  4. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
  5. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  7. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," NBER Working Papers 11299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  9. Robert Lensink, 2002. "Is the uncertainty-investment link non-linear? Empirical evidence for developed economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 131-147, March.
  10. Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
  11. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 5474, March.
  12. Gyan Pradhan & Zeljan Schuster & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2004. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the level of investment in selected South-east Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2161-2165.
  13. Atella, Vincenzo & Atzeni, Gianfranco Enrico & Belvisi, Pier Luigi, 2003. "Investment and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 811-824, November.
  14. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
  15. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  16. Miguel D. Ramirez & Nader Nazmi, 2003. "Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 115-126, February.
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