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Panel Estimation of the Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in the Industrial Countries

Author

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  • Byrne, Joseph B

    (NIESR)

  • E. Philip Davis

Abstract

There is growing interest in economic uncertainty and its long run impact on investment. In previous work the authors established clear evidence of the negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on investment in the G7, measured using a GARCH approach, and Pooled Mean Group Panel Estimation. In this paper we assess the impact on investment of temporary and permanent components of exchange rate uncertainty derived using a components GARCH model. For a poolable subsample of EU countries, results suggest that it is the transitory and not the permanent component which adversely affects investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Byrne, Joseph B & E. Philip Davis, 2003. "Panel Estimation of the Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in the Industrial Countries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 34, Royal Economic Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:34
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Hooy Chee Wooi, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Asian Financial Crisis: Evidence from South Korea and ASEAN-5," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 237-264.
    2. Havva Koc, 2020. "Trilemma Hypothesis: A Different Perspective on Turkey Economy," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 383-412, December.
    3. Osinubi, T. S. & Amaghionyeodiwe, L. A, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    4. Bianca Clausen, 2008. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Threshold Effects, and Aggregate Investment – Evidence from Latin American Countries," IWP Discussion Paper Series 02/2008, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; uncertainty; exchange rates; non stationary panel estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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