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Increases in Business Investment Rates in OECD Countries in the 1990s: How Much Can be Explained by Fundamentals?

Listed author(s):
  • Florian Pelgrin
  • Sebastian Schich
  • Alain de Serres

In several OECD countries, investment rates in the business sector grew strongly in the second half of the 1990s. In some cases, the strength of private investment relative to output growth had raised concerns about the risk of capital overhang and the prospect of a prolonged period of slow capital formation in order to bring investment levels back to more sustainable levels. It is possible that the stock market boom has contributed to a rise of investment demand to an excessive level, not only in the United States, but also in the United Kingdom, Canada, Scandinavia and Greece. The purpose of this paper is to assess the contribution of fundamental determinants to the change in investment in the second half of the 1990s, based on the estimation of panel cointegration equations for gross business investment for 18 OECD countries from 1970 to 1999. In addition to the levels of real GDP and a measure of the cost of capital, the set of explanatory variables includes four alternative ... Dans quelle mesure la hausse des taux d'investissement dans les pays de l'OCDE durant les années 90 peut-elle être expliquée par les fondamentaux? Dans plusieurs pays de l’OCDE, les taux d’investissement du secteur des entreprises ont connu une forte croissance durant la deuxième moitié des années 90. Dans certains cas, la croissance rapide de l’investissement privé comparativement à celle de la production globale avait soulevé certaines inquiétudes concernant le risque d’une sur-accumulation de capital et la perspective d’une période prolongée de faible formation de capital nécessaire pour ramener le taux d’investissement à un niveau plus soutenable. Il est possible que la bulle sur les marchés boursiers ait entraîné un sur-investissement non-seulement aux États-Unis mais aussi au Royaume-Uni, au Canada, en Scandinavie et en Grèce. L’objectif de cette étude est d’évaluer la contribution des déterminants fondamentaux au changement dans l’investissement durant la deuxième moitié des années 90, à partir de l’estimation d’équations de panel pour l’investissement brut du secteur des entreprises dans 18 pays de l’OCDE sur la ...

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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 327.

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Date of creation: 15 Apr 2002
Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:327-en
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