Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Investigation
There is a presumption in the literature that price or exchange rate uncertainty, or uncertainty in the monetary conditions underlying them, will have a negative effect on investment. Some argue that this negative effect will be extended by imperfect competition. However, models of "irreversible" investment show that the situation is more complicated than that. In these models, investment expenditures are affected by the scrapping price available on world markets; and also by the opportunity cost of waiting rather than investing. The impact of uncertainty is therefore going to depend on the type of industry, and hence on the industrial structure of the economy concerned. In addition, it may depend on the persistence of any price "misalignments" away from competitive equilibrium. In this paper, we put these theoretical predictions to the test. We estimate investment equations for 13 different industries using data for 9 OECD countries over the period 1970-2000. We find the impact of price uncertainty is negative or insignificant in all but one case. But the impact of (nominal) exchange rate uncertainty is negative in only 6 cases. It is positive in 4 cases, and insignificant in 3 others. In addition, there are conflicting effects from the real exchange rate. The net effect depends on whether the source of the uncertainty is in domestic markets or in foreign markets.
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- Bacchetta, Philippe & Van Wincoop, Eric, 2002.
"A theory of the currency denomination of international trade,"
Working Paper Series
0177, European Central Bank.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.13, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2002. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 747, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2002. "A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 9039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- P. Bacchetta & E. van Wincoop, 2002. "A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 75, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade," Working Papers 01.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
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