IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/van/wpaper/0406.html

Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Hughes Hallett

    (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University and CEPR)

  • Gert Peersman

    (Department of Financial Economics, Ghent University, Gent, Belgium and Bank of England)

  • Laura Piscitelli

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

There is a presumption in the literature that price or exchange rate uncertainty, or uncertainty in the monetary conditions underlying them, will have a negative effect on investment. Some argue that this negative effect will be extended by imperfect competition. However, models of "irreversible" investment show that the situation is more complicated than that. In these models, investment expenditures are affected by the scrapping price available on world markets; and also by the opportunity cost of waiting rather than investing. The impact of uncertainty is therefore going to depend on the type of industry, and hence on the industrial structure of the economy concerned. In addition, it may depend on the persistence of any price "misalignments" away from competitive equilibrium. In this paper, we put these theoretical predictions to the test. We estimate investment equations for 13 different industries using data for 9 OECD countries over the period 1970-2000. We find the impact of price uncertainty is negative or insignificant in all but one case. But the impact of (nominal) exchange rate uncertainty is negative in only 6 cases. It is positive in 4 cases, and insignificant in 3 others. In addition, there are conflicting effects from the real exchange rate. The net effect depends on whether the source of the uncertainty is in domestic markets or in foreign markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Hughes Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Investigation," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0406, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/VUECON/vu04-w06.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2004
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 137-162, June.
    2. Pesaran, M. H. & Zhao, Z., 1998. "Bias Reduction in Estimating Long-run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogenous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9802, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 137-162, June.
    2. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2009. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 813-835, September.
    3. Martin Ruzima & Micheal Kofi Boachie, 2018. "Exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in BRICS economies," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 65-77, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Hallett & Gert Peersman & Laura Piscitelli, 2004. "Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 137-162, June.
    2. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2015. "The exchange rate pass-through to import and export prices: The role of nominal rigidities and currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-25.
    3. Auboin, Marc, 2012. "Use of currencies in international irade: Any changes in the picture?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    4. Josué, ANDRIANADY & E. ALIDA, Camara & Randrianantenaina, Kantotiana S. & M. Andreas, Jonathan, 2024. "Tourism’s Impact on Inclusive Growth and CO2 Emissions in the Case of Madagascar," MPRA Paper 121648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Liu, Tao, 2015. "Trade finance and international currency," MPRA Paper 64362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alessandro Flamini, 2003. "CPI Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-through," Macroeconomics 0306017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Daniel Gersten Reiss, 2015. "Invoice currency: Puzzling evidence and new questions from Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 16(2), pages 206-225.
    8. Shapiro, Dmitry & Shi, Xianwen & Zillante, Artie, 2014. "Level-k reasoning in a generalized beauty contest," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 308-329.
    9. Flamini, Alessandro & Milas, Costas, 2015. "Distribution forecast targeting in an open-economy, macroeconomic volatility and financial implications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 89-105.
    10. Alain Ize & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Real Dollarization, Financial Dollarization, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 375, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Ida Wolden Bache, 2008. "Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper 2007/12, Norges Bank.
    12. Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Trade Invoicing in the Accession Countries: Are They Suited to the Euro?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 357-393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Tao Liu & Dong Lu & Liang Wang, 2023. "Hegemony or Harmony? A Unified Framework for the International Monetary System," Working Papers 202305, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    14. Natalie Chen & Wanyu Chung & Dennis Novy, 2022. "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 312-351.
    15. Kolver Hernandez & Aslı Leblebicioğlu, 2012. "A regime-switching analysis of pass-through," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(3), pages 523-552, September.
    16. Zhang, Cathy, 2014. "An information-based theory of international currency," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 286-301.
    17. Pavel Kadochnikov, 2006. "An Analysis of Import Substitution in Russia after the 1998 Crisis," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 95P, pages 148-148.
    18. Maurice J. G. Bun, 2003. "Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 29-58, February.
    19. Barhoumi, Karim, 2006. "Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 926-951, December.
    20. Mihailov, Alexander, 2003. "When and How Much Does a Peg Increase Trade? The Role of Trade Costs and Import Demand Elasticity under Monetary Uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 8866, University of Essex, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/econ/wparchive/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.