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Investment and Exchange Rate Under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Vincenzo Atella

    () (University of Rome II - Faculty of Economics)

  • Gianfranco Enrico Atzeni

    () (University of Sassari - Dip.to di Economia Impresa e Regolamentazione)

  • Pier Luigi Belvisi

    () (Universitˆ degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata - Faculty of Law)

Abstract

The literature on the relationship between exchange rate and investment mainly focuses on the devaluation argument, which provides evidence that a devaluation may positively affect investment spending. The goal of this paper is to extend the analysis to how exchange rate variability can influence firm innovation process. Employing a large panel of Italian firms and using a model of signal extraction we find that exchange rate volatility reduces investment, with a decreasing sensitivity the greater the firm market power. A stable exchange rate is then an incentive to invest as it allows a more reliable estimation of its marginal productivity. To this extent, any economic system may benefit from a stable exchange rate in terms of investment and profit, provided it is able to strengthen its firm market power.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Atella & Gianfranco Enrico Atzeni & Pier Luigi Belvisi, 2003. "Investment and Exchange Rate Under Uncertainty," CEIS Research Paper 32, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:32
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 55-67, March.
    2. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets," NBER Chapters,in: The Impact of International Trade on Wages, pages 269-307 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Goldberg, Linda S, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 575-588, November.
    4. Linda S. Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "Exchange rates and wages," Staff Reports 116, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    6. Campa, Jose Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 1999. "Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-314, May.
    7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    8. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F., 2001. "Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 259-283, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2009. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 813-835, September.
    2. Carolina Troncoso Baltar & Celio Hiratuka & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2014. "Investment in the Brazilian manufacturing industry and the real exchange rate: An investigation using sectoral-level panel data," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1408, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    3. Eliane Cristina de Araújo, 2011. "Volatilidade Cambial e Crescimento Econômico: Teorias e Evidências para Economias em Desenvolvimento e Emergentes (1980 e 2007)," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 12(2), pages 187-213.
    4. Ibrahima Amadou DIALLO, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Investment: A Panel Data Cointegration Approach," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(2), pages 127-135.
    5. Günçavdi, Öner & Küçük, Ali Erhan, 2013. "Investment expenditure and capital accumulation in an inflationary environment: The case of Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 554-571.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; firm heterogeneity; investment; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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