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Investment and Exchange Rate Under Uncertainty

  • Vincenzo Atella


    (University of Rome II - Faculty of Economics)

  • Gianfranco Enrico Atzeni


    (University of Sassari - di Economia Impresa e Regolamentazione)

  • Pier Luigi Belvisi


    (Universitˆ degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata - Faculty of Law)

The literature on the relationship between exchange rate and investment mainly focuses on the devaluation argument, which provides evidence that a devaluation may positively affect investment spending. The goal of this paper is to extend the analysis to how exchange rate variability can influence firm innovation process. Employing a large panel of Italian firms and using a model of signal extraction we find that exchange rate volatility reduces investment, with a decreasing sensitivity the greater the firm market power. A stable exchange rate is then an incentive to invest as it allows a more reliable estimation of its marginal productivity. To this extent, any economic system may benefit from a stable exchange rate in terms of investment and profit, provided it is able to strengthen its firm market power.

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Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series CEIS Research Paper with number 32.

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Length: 16
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:32
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  1. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1995. "Investment, Pass-Through and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets," NBER Chapters, in: The Impact of International Trade on Wages, pages 269-307 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  5. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
  6. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  7. Goldberg, Linda S, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 575-88, November.
  8. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F., 2001. "Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 259-283, February.
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