IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1269.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Expecting job replacement by GenAI: effects on workers' economic outlook and behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Yusuke Aoki
  • Joon Suk Park
  • Yuya Takada
  • Koji Takahashi

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between individuals' expectations of job replacement by generative AI (GenAI) and their macroeconomic outlooks and behaviors. Using online surveys combined with randomized experiments conducted in the U.S. and Japan, we derive the following findings about the effects of expecting greater job replacement due to GenAI. First, in both the U.S. and Japan, respondents revise their beliefs after receiving information about GenAI's job replacement ratios. Second, in Japan, such an expectation leads to an increase in inflation expectations driven by a rise in investment. Third, it increases respondents' willingness to use GenAI in workplaces in Japan. Fourth, in the U.S., expectations of greater job replacement amplify concerns about weaker short-term labor demand and reduced skill requirements, particularly among more educated respondents. In addition, these respondents anticipate lower investment, while less educated respondents expect higher investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuke Aoki & Joon Suk Park & Yuya Takada & Koji Takahashi, 2025. "Expecting job replacement by GenAI: effects on workers' economic outlook and behavior," BIS Working Papers 1269, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1269
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1269.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1269.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Generative Artificial intelligence; labor market; inflation; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.