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Monetary policy along the yield curve: why can central banks affect long-term real rates?

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Listed:
  • Paul Beaudry
  • Paolo Cavallino
  • Tim Willems

Abstract

This paper presents theory and evidence to advance the notion that very persistent policy-induced interest rate changes may have only weak effects on activity. This arises when consumption-savings decisions are not primarily driven by intertemporal substitution, but also by life-cycle forces. The small impact of persistent rate changes results when intertemporal substitution and asset valuation effects are offset by interest income effects, which affect asset demand. In our framework, knowing the exact location of r* becomes less critical to central banks, as interest rates can be kept away from this level for prolonged periods of time, allowing monetary policy to unconsciously drive trends in real rates. This perspective offers an explanation to a set of puzzles, including why long-term real rates often move quite closely with short-term policy rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Beaudry & Paolo Cavallino & Tim Willems, 2025. "Monetary policy along the yield curve: why can central banks affect long-term real rates?," BIS Working Papers 1246, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1246
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marius Brülhart & Jonathan Gruber & Matthias Krapf & Kurt Schmidheiny, 2022. "Behavioral Responses to Wealth Taxes: Evidence from Switzerland," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 111-150, November.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2023. "Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: Past and Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 18658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jonathon Hazell & Juan Herreño & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2022. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1299-1344.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; r-star; monetary transmission mechanism; retirement savings; unconventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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