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Central Banks and Inflation: Where Do We Stand and How Did We Get Here?

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  • Whelan, Karl

Abstract

The inability of central banks to attain their target inflation rates in recent years has raised questions about the extent to which central banks can control the inflation process. This paper discusses the evolution of thought and evidence since the 1960s on the determinants of inflation and the role that should be played by central banks. The paper highlights the roles played by two streams of thought associated with Milton Friedman: Monetarist theories predicting a key role for monetary aggregates in determining inflation and the rise in popularity of the expectations-augmented Phillips curve. We discuss influence of the latter in determining the modern consensus on central bank institutions and the relative roles for fiscal and monetary policies. We conclude with a discussion of macroeconomic developments of the past decade and current policy options to stimulate the economy and restore inflation to its target levels, including the merits of “helicopter money†.

Suggested Citation

  • Whelan, Karl, 2021. "Central Banks and Inflation: Where Do We Stand and How Did We Get Here?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16557
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    2. Helmut Siekmann, 2023. "Inflation, Price Stability, and Monetary Policy: On the Legality of Inflation Targeting by the Eurosystem," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Frank Rövekamp & Moritz Bälz & Hanns Günther Hilpert & Wook Sohn (ed.), Inflation and Deflation in East Asia, chapter 0, pages 125-146, Springer.
    3. Lars Jonung, 2025. "The Problems of Inflation Targeting Originate in the Monetary Theory of Knut Wicksell," Springer Studies in the History of Economic Thought, in: Muriel Dal Pont Legrand & Harald Hagemann (ed.), Waving the Swedish Flag in Economics, pages 39-77, Springer.
    4. Gobbi, Lucio & Mazzocchi, Ronny & Tamborini, Roberto, 2025. "Inflation shocks and the New Keynesian model: When should central banks fear inflation expectations?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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