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The aggregate costs of uninsurable business risk

Author

Listed:
  • Corina Boar
  • Denis Gorea
  • Virgiliu Midrigan

Abstract

We use firm-level data to document that private businesses experience large fluctuations in their profit shares. These are due to large, fat-tailed and transitory changes in output that are not fully accompanied by changes in their inputs. We interpret this evidence using a model of entrepreneurial dynamics. Because firms can limit their exposure to risk by operating at a smaller scale, our model predicts large macroeconomic losses from uninsurable business risk, much larger than those stemming from credit constraints. While self-financing allows entrepreneurs to quickly overcome credit constraints, even wealthy entrepreneurs remain considerably exposed to risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Corina Boar & Denis Gorea & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2025. "The aggregate costs of uninsurable business risk," BIS Working Papers 1300, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1300
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2007. "How Costly Is External Financing? Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1705-1745, August.
    2. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
    3. Jess Benhabib & Alberto Bisin & Mi Luo, 2017. "Earnings Inequality and Other Determinants of Wealth Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 593-597, May.
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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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