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Profitability, valuation and resilience of global banks - a tight link

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  • John Caparusso
  • Leonardo Ulf Lewrick
  • Nikola Tarashev

Abstract

We derive a tight link between the profitability, valuation and resilience of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). We measure profitability using return on equity (ROE), valuation with the price-to-book ratio and resilience through the capital headroom above regulatory requirements ("management buffer"). We find that price-to-book ratios increase in analysts' ROE forecasts and in banks' management buffers. We also document that low-valued G-SIBs maintain management buffers by reducing risk-weighted assets and cater to investors by paying out their entire profits. However, the resilience of low-valued G-SIBs could prove precarious as they frequently incur substantial losses that trigger significant negative stock-market reactions.

Suggested Citation

  • John Caparusso & Leonardo Ulf Lewrick & Nikola Tarashev, 2023. "Profitability, valuation and resilience of global banks - a tight link," BIS Working Papers 1144, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stability; price-to-book ratio; banking regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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