IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v157y2025ics0022199625000558.html

Banks’ market capital and the international risk taking channel of US monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Avdjiev, Stefan
  • Serena, Jose Maria

Abstract

We demonstrate that banks’ market capital is a key determinant of the strength of the international risk-taking channel of US monetary policy. The impact of US monetary policy on international risk-taking is greater for banks with low market capital. The effect of market capital exists in addition to the previously documented effect of regulatory capital, which works in the opposite direction. As a result, the international risk-taking channel of monetary policy is most powerful for banks that have a combination of high regulatory capital and low market capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Avdjiev, Stefan & Serena, Jose Maria, 2025. "Banks’ market capital and the international risk taking channel of US monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:157:y:2025:i:c:s0022199625000558
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104099
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199625000558
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104099?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Caparusso & Leonardo Ulf Lewrick & Nikola Tarashev, 2023. "Profitability, valuation and resilience of global banks - a tight link," BIS Working Papers 1144, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    3. Stefan Avdjiev & Mary Everett & Philip R Lane & Hyun Song Shin, 2018. "Tracking the international footprints of global firms," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    4. Alper, Koray & Altunok, Fatih & Çapacıoğlu, Tanju & Ongena, Steven, 2020. "The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Cross-Border Bank Loans: Evidence from an Emerging Market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    6. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2012. "Leverage across firms, banks, and countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 284-298.
    7. Rustom M Irani & Rajkamal Iyer & Ralf R Meisenzahl & José-Luis Peydró, 2021. "The Rise of Shadow Banking: Evidence from Capital Regulation [Securities trading by banks and credit supply: Micro-evidence from the crisis]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 2181-2235.
    8. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Marco Becht & Patrick Bolton & Ailsa Röell, 2011. "Why bank governance is different," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(3), pages 437-463.
    10. Rebecca Demsetz & Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "Banks with something to lose: the disciplinary role of franchise value," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 1-14.
    11. Patrick Bolton & Hamid Mehran & Joel Shapiro, 2015. "Executive Compensation and Risk Taking," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(6), pages 2139-2181.
    12. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    13. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2017. "Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 613-654, April.
    14. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Sette, Enrico, 2020. "Risk Mitigating versus Risk Shifting: Evidence from Banks Security Trading in Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 15473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Stefan Avdjiev & Előd Takáts, 2019. "Monetary Policy Spillovers and Currency Networks in Cross-Border Bank Lending: Lessons from the 2013 Fed Taper Tantrum," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(5), pages 993-1029.
    17. Robin Koepke, 2019. "What Drives Capital Flows To Emerging Markets? A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 516-540, April.
    18. Stefan Avdjiev & Wenxin Du & Cathérine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Deviations from Covered Interest Parity," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 193-208, September.
    19. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    20. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    21. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
    22. Temesvary, Judit & Ongena, Steven & Owen, Ann L., 2018. "A global lending channel unplugged? Does U.S. monetary policy affect cross-border and affiliate lending by global U.S. banks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 50-69.
    23. Victoria Ivashina & David Scharfstein, 2010. "Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 57-61, May.
    24. Avdjiev, Stefan & Koch, Cathérine & McGuire, Patrick & von Peter, Goetz, 2018. "Transmission of monetary policy through global banks: Whose policy matters?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 67-82.
    25. Cerutti, Eugenio & Hale, Galina & Minoiu, Camelia, 2015. "Financial crises and the composition of cross-border lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 60-81.
    26. Colonnello, Stefano & Koetter, Michael & Wagner, Konstantin, 2023. "Compensation regulation in banking: Executive director behavior and bank performance after the EU bonus cap," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1).
    27. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    28. Gropp, Reint E. & Köhler, Matthias, 2010. "Bank owners or bank managers: who is keen on risk? Evidence from the financial crisis," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-013, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    29. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
    30. Takáts, Előd & Temesvary, Judit, 2020. "The currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    31. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    32. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 17-29.
    33. Ioannidou, Vasso & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-144.
    34. Lee, Seung Jung & Liu, Lucy Qian & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2022. "Risk-taking spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in the global market for U.S. dollar corporate loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    35. Robin Koepke & Simon Paetzold, 2024. "Capital flow data—A guide for empirical analysis and real‐time tracking," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 311-331, January.
    36. Fahlenbrach, Rüdiger & Stulz, René M., 2011. "Bank CEO incentives and the credit crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 11-26, January.
    37. Albrizio, Silvia & Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Yoon, Chansik, 2020. "International bank lending channel of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    38. Calomiris, Charles W. & Nissim, Doron, 2014. "Crisis-related shifts in the market valuation of banking activities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 400-435.
    39. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    40. Amir Sufi, 2007. "Information Asymmetry and Financing Arrangements: Evidence from Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 629-668, April.
    41. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    42. Michael Schwert, 2018. "Bank Capital and Lending Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 787-830, April.
    43. Avdjiev, Stefan & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Goldberg, Linda S. & Schiaffi, Stefano, 2020. "The shifting drivers of global liquidity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    44. Lim, Jongha & Minton, Bernadette A. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2014. "Syndicated loan spreads and the composition of the syndicate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 45-69.
    45. Andrew Ellul & Vijay Yerramilli, 2013. "Stronger Risk Controls, Lower Risk: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1757-1803, October.
    46. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    47. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Avdjiev & José María Serena Garralda, 2020. "Regulatory capital, market capital and risk taking in international bank lending," BIS Working Papers 912, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Fabiani, Josefina & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2025. "The bank-lending channel of macroprudential policy: Evidence from cross-border bank flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Takáts, Előd & Temesvary, Judit, 2020. "The currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Alper, Koray & Altunok, Fatih & Çapacıoğlu, Tanju & Ongena, Steven, 2020. "The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Cross-Border Bank Loans: Evidence from an Emerging Market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Salih Fendoğlu & Eda Gülşen & José-Luis Peydró, 2019. "Global Liquidity and Impairment of Local Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1131, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Albrizio, Silvia & Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Yoon, Chansik, 2020. "International bank lending channel of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Swapan-Kumar Pradhan & Elod Takats & Judit Temesvary, 2024. "How does fiscal policy affect the transmission of monetary policy into cross-border bank lending? Cross-country evidence," BIS Working Papers 1226, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Elliott, David & Meisenzahl, Ralf R. & Peydró, José-Luis, 2024. "Nonbank lenders as global shock absorbers: Evidence from US monetary policy spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Swapan-Kumar Pradhan & Viktors Stebunovs & Előd Takáts & Judit Temesvary, 2025. "Geopolitics Meets Monetary Policy: Decoding Their Impact on Cross-Border Bank Lending," International Finance Discussion Papers 1403, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Ricardo Correa & Teodora Paligorova & Horacio Sapriza & Andrei Zlate, 2022. "Cross-Border Bank Flows and Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(1), pages 438-481.
    12. Avdjiev, Stefan & Koch, Cathérine & McGuire, Patrick & von Peter, Goetz, 2018. "Transmission of monetary policy through global banks: Whose policy matters?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 67-82.
    13. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Machiko Narita & Ratna Sahay, 2020. "US or Domestic Monetary Policy: Which Matters More for Financial Stability?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 35-65, March.
    14. Choi, Dong Beom & Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2021. "Watering a lemon tree: Heterogeneous risk taking and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    15. Segev, Nimrod, 2020. "Identifying the risk-Taking channel of monetary transmission and the connection to economic activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    16. Heider, Florian & Leonello, Agnese, 2021. "Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Reversal Rate and Risk-Taking," Working Paper Series 2593, European Central Bank.
    17. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, May.
    19. Temesvary, Judit & Ongena, Steven & Owen, Ann L., 2018. "A global lending channel unplugged? Does U.S. monetary policy affect cross-border and affiliate lending by global U.S. banks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 50-69.
    20. Manthos D. Delis & Iftekhar Hasan & Nikolaos Mylonidis, 2017. "The Risk‐Taking Channel of Monetary Policy in the U.S.: Evidence from Corporate Loan Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 187-213, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:157:y:2025:i:c:s0022199625000558. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.