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Predicting the payment preference for CBDC: a discrete choice experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Syngjoo Choi
  • Bongseop Kim
  • Young-Sik Kim
  • Ohik Kwon
  • Soeun Park

Abstract

To overcome the lack of data in predicting the payment preference for central bank digital currency (CBDC), we conducted a discrete choice experiment that varied the attributes of payment methods among over 3,500 participants in Korea. We identified key attributes, such as the discount rate and the issuance form, that shape the demand for payment methods. The predicted usage shares of existing payment methods closely align with their actual usage patterns in Korea, which lends credible support for the external validity of our experimental design. Building on this validation, we further predict that CBDC, when introduced, will be preferred over cash and mobile fast payment but less preferred than credit and debit cards, with its adoption rate as the most preferred payment method ranging 19−27% of respondents.

Suggested Citation

  • Syngjoo Choi & Bongseop Kim & Young-Sik Kim & Ohik Kwon & Soeun Park, 2025. "Predicting the payment preference for CBDC: a discrete choice experiment," BIS Working Papers 1296, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1296
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    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General

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