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Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence

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  • Ariadne Checo
  • Francesco Grigoli
  • Damiano Sandri

Abstract

Doubts persist about the effectiveness of monetary transmission in emerging markets, but the empirical evidence is scarce due to challenges in identifying monetary policy shocks. In this paper, we construct new monetary policy shocks using novel analysts' forecasts of policy rate decisions. Crucial for identification, analysts can update forecasts up to the policy meeting, allowing them to incorporate any relevant data release. Using these shocks, we show that monetary transmission in emerging markets operates similarly to advanced economies. Monetary tightening leads to a persistent increase in bond yields, a contraction in real activity, and a delayed reduction in inflation. Furthermore, monetary policy impacts leveraged firms more strongly.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariadne Checo & Francesco Grigoli & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence," BIS Working Papers 1170, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1170
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
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    3. Simon Gilchrist & David López-Salido & Egon Zakrajšek, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-109, January.
    4. Cecilia R. Caglio & R. Matthew Darst & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2021. "Collateral Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Loans to SMEs and Large Firms," NBER Working Papers 28685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect"," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 664-700, March.
    6. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2013. "Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Cornelia Holthausen & George G Kaufman & Manfred Kremer (ed.), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability How Has It Changed?, chapter 6, pages 105-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy shocks; financial markets; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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