IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2024-093.html

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Ariadne Checo
  • Mr. Francesco Grigoli
  • Mr. Damiano Sandri

Abstract

Doubts persist about the effectiveness of monetary transmission in emerging markets, but the empirical evidence is scarce due to challenges in identifying monetary policy shocks. In this paper, we construct new monetary policy shocks using novel analysts’ forecasts of policy rate decisions. Crucial for identification, analysts can update forecasts up to the policy meeting, allowing them to incorporate any relevant data release. Using these shocks, we show that monetary transmission in emerging markets operates similarly to advanced economies. Monetary tightening leads to a persistent increase in bond yields, a contraction in real activity, and a delayed reduction in inflation. Furthermore, monetary policy impacts leveraged firms more strongly.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariadne Checo & Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2024/093, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=546642
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alicia Aguilar & Adriana Lojschová & Carlos Canizares Martınez, 2025. "Non-linear effects of monetary policy shocks on housing: evidence from a CESEE country," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2026, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    2. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Adriana Lojschová & Alicia Aguilar, 2026. "Non-linear effects of monetary policy shocks on housing: evidence from a CESEE country," BCL working papers 202, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    3. Okan Akarsu & Mehmet Selman Çolak & Hatice Karahan & Huzeyfe Torun, 2025. "The heterogeneous impact of monetary policy announcements on firms’ financial outcomes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 3045-3087, December.
    4. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, 2025. "The heterogeneous impact of monetary policy announcements on firms' financial outcomes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), How can central banks take account of differences across households and firms for monetary policy?, volume 127, pages 295-330, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Mikael Juselius & Dora Xia, 2026. "Monetary responses to external shocks in emerging market economies: the role of financial vulnerabilities," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Okan Akarsu & Mehmet Selman Colak & Hatice Karahan & Huzeyfe Torun, 2025. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Monetary Policy Announcements on Firms’ Financial Outcomes," Working Papers 2514, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.