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Bonds or Loans? the Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals

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  • Galina Hale

Abstract

The costs of debt crises are not invariant to the foreign debt instrument composition: bank loans or bonds. The lending boom of the 1990s witnessed considerable variation over time and across countries in the debt instrument used by emerging market (EM) borrowers. This article tests how macroeconomic fundamentals affect the composition of international debt instruments used by EM borrowers. Analysis of micro-level data using an ordered probability model shows that macroeconomic fundamentals explain a significant share of variation in the ratio of bonds to loans for private borrowers, but not for the sovereigns. Copyright 2007 The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2007.

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  • Galina Hale, 2007. "Bonds or Loans? the Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 196-215, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:117:y:2007:i:516:p:196-215
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    Cited by:

    1. Barry Eichengreen & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2006. "Why doesn’t Asia have bigger bond markets?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asian bond markets: issues and prospects, volume 30, pages 40-77 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
    3. Issam Hallak & Paul Schure, 2011. "Why Larger Lenders Obtain Higher Returns: Evidence from Sovereign Syndicated Loans," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 427-453, June.
    4. Natalia Nehrebecka & Michał Brzozowski, 2016. "Wpływ niepewności makroekonomicznej na oszczędności przedsiębiorstw," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 51-69.
    5. Cortina Lorente,Juan Jose & Didier Brandao,Tatiana & Schmukler,Sergio L. & Cortina Lorente,Juan Jose & Didier Brandao,Tatiana & Schmukler,Sergio L., 2016. "Corporate borrowing and debt maturity : the effects of market access and crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7815, The World Bank.
    6. Claessens, Stijn & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "International financial integration through equity markets: Which firms from which countries go global?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 788-813, September.
    7. Ayala, Diana & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Saborowski, Christian, 2017. "What slice of the pie? The corporate bond market boom in emerging economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-35.
    8. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
    9. Cerutti, Eugenio & Hale, Galina & Minoiu, Camelia, 2015. "Financial crises and the composition of cross-border lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 60-81.
    10. Hale, Galina & Arteta, Carlos, 2009. "Currency crises and foreign credit in emerging markets: Credit crunch or demand effect?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 758-774, October.
    11. Barry Eichengreen & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2004. "Why Dones't Asia have the biger bond markets," Working Papers 242004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. Francis, Johanna L. & Aykut, Dilek & Tereanu, Eugen, 2014. "The cost of private debt over the credit cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 146-181.
    13. Fratzscher, Marcel & Bussière, Matthieu & Koeniger, Winfried, 2004. "Currency mismatch, uncertainty and debt maturity structure," Working Paper Series 409, European Central Bank.
    14. Xingwang Qian & Andreas Steiner, 2014. "International Reserves and the Composition of Foreign Equity Investment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 379-409, May.
    15. Hallak, Issam, 2009. "Renegotiation and the pricing structure of sovereign bank loans: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 89-103, January.
    16. Paul Mizen & Serafeim Tsoukas, "undated". "Evidence on the external finance premium from the US and emerging Asian corporate bond markets," Discussion Papers 06/04, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    17. Winfried Koeniger & Matthieu Bussiere & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Currency Mismatch, Uncertainty and Debt Structure," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 181, Econometric Society.
    18. Paul Mizen & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2010. "What Effect Has Bond Market Development in Emerging Asia Had on the Issuance of Corporate Bonds?," Working Papers 182010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    19. Adamuz, María de las Mercedes & Hernández Cortés, Janko, 2015. "Endogenous screening and the formation of loan syndicates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 290-307.

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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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