An analysis of global warming in the Alpine region based on nonlinear nonstationary time series models
The annual temperatures recorded for the last two centuries in fifteen european stations around the Alps are analyzed. They show a global warming whose growth rate is not however constant in time. An analysis based on linear Arima models does not provide accurate results. Thus, we propose threshold nonlinear nonstationary models based on several regimes both in time and in levels. Such models fit all series satisfactorily, allow a closer description of the temperature changes evolution, and help to discover the essential differences in the behavior of the different stations. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012
Volume (Year): 21 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Web page: http://www.sis-statistica.it/
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/statistics/journal/10260/PS2|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Dueker, Michael J. & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2007. "Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: Estimation, testing and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 517-547, December.
- Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: estimation, testing and forecasting," Working Papers 2003-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
- Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Department of Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Baragona, R. & Battaglia, F. & Cucina, D., 2004. "Fitting piecewise linear threshold autoregressive models by means of genetic algorithms," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 277-295, September.
- Davis, Richard A. & Lee, Thomas C.M. & Rodriguez-Yam, Gabriel A., 2006. "Structural Break Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 223-239, March.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-121, January.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2000. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 376, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Sin, Chor-Yiu & White, Halbert, 1996. "Information criteria for selecting possibly misspecified parametric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 207-225.
- Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos K. Protopapas, 2011. "Time‐varying multi‐regime models fitting by genetic algorithms," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 237-252, 05.
- Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2009. "Time-varying Multi-regime Models Fitting by Genetic Algorithms," Working Papers 009, COMISEF.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Model Selection for Nested and Overlapping Nonlinear, Dynamic and Possibly Mis-specified Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 867-893, December.
- Wu, Berlin & Chang, Chih-Li, 2002. "Using genetic algorithms to parameters (d,r) estimation for threshold autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 315-330, January.
- Chatterjee, Sangit & Laudato, Matthew & Lynch, Lucy A., 1996. "Genetic algorithms and their statistical applications: an introduction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 633-651, October.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2012. "Multi–regime models for nonlinear nonstationary time series," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 319-341, June.
- Joseph Tadjuidje Kamgaing & Hernando Ombao & Richard A. Davis, 2009. "Autoregressive processes with data-driven regime switching," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 505-533, 09.
- Douglas Rivers & Quang Vuong, 2002. "Model selection tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, June.
- Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:21:y:2012:i:3:p:315-334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.