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Time-varying Multi-regime Models Fitting by Genetic Algorithms

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  • Francesco Battaglia
  • Mattheos Protopapas

Abstract

Many time series exhibit both nonlinearity and nonstationarity. Though both features have often been taken into account separately, few attempts have been proposed to model them simultaneously. We consider threshold models, and present a general model allowing for different regimes both in time and in levels, where regime transitions may happen according to self-exciting, or smoothly varying, or piecewise linear threshold modeling. Since fitting such a model involves the choice of a large number of structural parameters, we propose a procedure based on genetic algorithms, evaluating models by means of a generalized identification criterion. The performance of the proposed procedure is illustrated with a simulation study and applications to some real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2009. "Time-varying Multi-regime Models Fitting by Genetic Algorithms," Working Papers 009, COMISEF.
  • Handle: RePEc:com:wpaper:009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baragona, R. & Battaglia, F. & Cucina, D., 2004. "Fitting piecewise linear threshold autoregressive models by means of genetic algorithms," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 277-295, September.
    2. McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 104-119, November.
    3. Cristina Amado & Timo Teräsvirta, 2008. "Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure," NIPE Working Papers 03/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    5. Wu, Berlin & Chang, Chih-Li, 2002. "Using genetic algorithms to parameters (d,r) estimation for threshold autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 315-330, January.
    6. Dirk Te Velde, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 178, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    7. Chatterjee, Sangit & Laudato, Matthew & Lynch, Lucy A., 1996. "Genetic algorithms and their statistical applications: an introduction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 633-651, October.
    8. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
    9. Davis, Richard A. & Lee, Thomas C.M. & Rodriguez-Yam, Gabriel A., 2006. "Structural Break Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 223-239, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frauke Schleer, 2015. "Finding Starting-Values for the Estimation of Vector STAR Models," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2012. "An analysis of global warming in the Alpine region based on nonlinear nonstationary time series models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 21(3), pages 315-334, August.
    3. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos K. Protopapas, 2010. "Multi-regime models for nonlinear nonstationary time series," Working Papers 026, COMISEF.
    4. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2012. "Multi–regime models for nonlinear nonstationary time series," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 319-341, June.
    5. Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "Finding starting-values for maximum likelihood estimation of vector STAR models," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-076, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    6. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2012. "Rejoinder to the discussion of “An analysis of global warming in the Alpine region based on nonlinear nonstationary time series models”," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 21(3), pages 371-373, August.

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    Keywords

    Nonlinear time series; Nonstationary time series; Threshold model;

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