Bayesian Analysis of Deterministic Time Trend and Changes in Persistence Using a Generalised Stochastic Unit Root Model
This paper makes use of the novel Generalized Stochastic Unit Root (GSTUR) model, Bayesian model estimation and model comparison techniques to investigate the presence of a deterministic time trend in economic series. The model is specified to allow for changes in persistence over time, such as shifts from stationarity I(0) to nonstationarity I(1) or vice versa. This uncertainty raises the crucial question about how sure one can be that an economic time series has a deterministic trend when there is a change in the underlying properties. Empirical analysis indicates that the GSTUR model could provide new insights on time series studies.
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- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
- Gary Koop & Eduardo Ley & Jacek Osiewalski & Mark F.J. Steel, 1995.
"Bayesian Analysis of Long Memory and Persistence using ARFIMA Models,"
9505001, EconWPA, revised 11 Jul 1995.
- Koop, Gary & Ley, Eduardo & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1997. "Bayesian analysis of long memory and persistence using ARFIMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 149-169.
- Gary Koop, 1995. "Bayesian Analysis of Long Memory and Persistence using ARFIMA Models," Working Papers gkoop-95-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- KOOP , Gary & LEY , Eduardo & OSIEWALSKI , Jacek & STEEL , Mark, 1995. "Bayesian Analysis of Long Memory and Persistence using ARFIMA Models," CORE Discussion Papers 1995035, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Koop, G. & Ley, E. & Osiewalski, J. & Steel, M. F. J., . "Bayesian analysis of long memory and persistence using ARFIMA models," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1246, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- n/a, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
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