Stock return predictability and dividend-price ratio: a nonlinear approach
This paper examines the forecasting ability of the dividend-price ratio for international stock market returns. Hitherto, existing research has only considered this issue in sample and in a linear framework. Hence, this paper provides the first systematic study of non-linear forecasting within the present value model context. Using an asymmetric variant of the popular exponential smooth-transition (ESTR) model we demonstrate the superior forecasting ability for the G7 markets over both a linear and symmetric ESTR model on the basis of a variety of forecast performance tests. In particular, the asymmetric-ESTR model provides improved mean forecast error metrics that are largely significant on the basis of forecast equality tests. Furthermore, in a trading rule exercise this models provides superior trading returns. As a final exercise we compare the forecasting performance of the individual models with those obtained through forecast combination. These results support the individual models on the basis of forecast error tests but suggest the combination strategy may be more profitable. These results are of importance not only for model builders but also for market participants looking to undertake active investment strategies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ |
|Order Information:||Web: http://jws-edcv.wiley.com/jcatalog/JournalsCatalogOrder/JournalOrder?PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sollis, Robert, 2009. "A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 118-125, January.
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010.
CREATES Research Papers
2010-21, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May.
- Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
- Diebold, Francis X, 1988. "Serial Correlation and the Combination of Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 105-11, January.
- Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001.
"A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?,"
2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
- Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
- Lanne, M., 2000.
"Testing the Predictability of Stock Returns,"
University of Helsinki, Department of Economics
488, Department of Economics.
- John H. Cochrane, 2008.
"The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
- John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Valuation ratios and long-horizon stock price predictability," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 327-344.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001.
"Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update,"
NBER Working Papers
8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996.
"Forecast Evaluation and Combination,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
- Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006.
"Efficient tests of stock return predictability,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
- Campbell, John & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Scholarly Articles 3122601, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010.
"Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
- Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
- Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
- Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
- Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the stock price-dividend relation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 583-606, June.
- Wolf, Michael, 2000. "Stock Returns and Dividend Yields Revisited: A New Way to Look at an Old Problem," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 18-30, January.
- n/a, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear STAR Error Correction Models," Working Papers 497, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2004. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices redux: a new testing strategy and some evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 208-223, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:15:y:2010:i:4:p:351-365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.