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Sequential methodology for signaling business cycle turning points

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  • Golosnoy, Vasyl
  • Hogrefe, Jens

Abstract

The dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is adapted for the purpose of on-line monitoring of transitions between subsequent phases of economic activity. The introduced procedure shows a sound detection ability for business cycle peaks and troughs compared to the established dynamic factor Markov switching methodology. It exhibits a range of theoretical optimality properties for early signaling, moreover, it is transparent and easy to implement.

Suggested Citation

  • Golosnoy, Vasyl & Hogrefe, Jens, 2009. "Sequential methodology for signaling business cycle turning points," Kiel Working Papers 1528, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1528
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vasyl Golosnoy & Jens Hogrefe, 2013. "Signaling NBER turning points: a sequential approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 438-448, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; CUSUM control chart; Dynamic Factor Markov switching models; Early signaling; NBER dating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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