Non-Markovian Regime Switching with Endogenous States and Time-Varying State Strengths
This article presents a non-Markovian regime switching model in which the regime states depend on the sign of an autoregressive latent variable. The magnitude of the latent variable indexes the `strength' of the state or how deeply the system is embedded in the current regime. The autoregressive nature of this non-Markovian regime switching implies time-varying state transition probabilities, even in the absence of an exogenous covariate. Furthermore, with time-varying regime strengths, the expected duration of a regime is time-varying. In this framework, it is natural to allow the autoregressive latent variable to be endogenous so that regimes are determined jointly with the observed data. We apply the model to GDP growth, as in Hamilton (1989), Albert and Chib (1993) and Filardo and Gordon (1998) to illustrate the relation of the regimes to NBER-dated recessions and the time-varying expected durations of regimes
|Date of creation:||11 Aug 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998.
"Business cycle durations,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
- Gordon, S.F. & Filardo, A.J., 1993. "Business Cycle Durations," Papers 9328, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
- Andrew J. Filardo & Stephen F. Gordon, 1993. "Business cycle durations," Research Working Paper 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- de Jong, Robert M. & Woutersen, Tiemen, 2011. "Dynamic Time Series Binary Choice," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(04), pages 673-702, August.
- Tiemen Woutersen & Robert M. de Jong, 2004. "Dynamic time series binary choice," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 365, Econometric Society.
- Robert M. de Jong & Tiemen Woutersen, 2007. "Dynamic time series binary choice," Economics Working Paper Archive 538, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Albert, James H & Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Pok-sang Lam, 2004. "A Markov-Switching Model Of Gnp Growth With Duration Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 175-204, 02.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
- Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 23 Feb 1995.
- Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for the Binary Response Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 505-531, May.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2004. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Working Papers 2003-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
- Andrew J. Filardo, 1993. "Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics," Research Working Paper 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-745, September.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)