IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/813.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Hördahl
  • Oreste Tristani

Abstract

We propose a regime-switching approach to deal with the lower bound on nominal interest rates in dynamic term structure modelling. In the "lower bound regime", the short term rate is expected to remain constant at levels close to the effective lower bound; in the "normal regime", the short rate interacts with other economic variables in a standard way. State-dependent regime switching probabilities ensure that the likelihood of being in the lower bound regime increases as short rates fall closer to zero. A key advantage of this approach is to capture the gradualism of the monetary policy normalization process following a lower bound episode. The possibility to return to the lower bound regime continues exerting an influence in the early phases of normalization, pulling expected future rates downwards. We apply our model to U.S. data and show that it captures key properties of yields at the lower bound. In spite of its heavier parameterization, the regime-switching model displays a competitive out-of-sample forecasting performance. It can also be used to gauge the risk of a return to the lower bound regime in the future. As of mid-2018, it provides a more benign assessment than alternative measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts," BIS Working Papers 813, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work813.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work813.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Koeda, Junko, 2013. "Endogenous monetary policy shifts and the term structure: Evidence from Japanese government bond yields," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-188.
    3. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007. "Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
    4. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    6. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    7. Scott Joslin & Marcel Priebsch & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1197-1233, June.
    8. Yoichi Ueno & Naohiko Baba & Yuji Sakurai, 2006. "The Use of the Black Model of Interest Rates as Options for Monitoring the JGB Market Expectations," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-15, Bank of Japan.
    9. Phuong Ngo & Francois Gourio, 2016. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: a macroeconomic interpretation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1585, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    11. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2012. "Identification and estimation of Gaussian affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 315-331.
    12. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2007. "Equilibrium Interest Rate and the Yield Curve in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    13. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    14. Kim, Don H. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2012. "Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 32-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2018. "Nearly exact Bayesian estimation of non-linear no-arbitrage term structure models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1189, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Joergensen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    5. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
    6. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 348-366.
    7. Michael D. Bauer, 2018. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 196-211, April.
    8. Coroneo, Laura & Pastorello, Sergio, 2020. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    11. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    12. Inaba, Kei-Ichiro, 2020. "Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
    15. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2017. "Term-structure modelling at the zero lower bound: Implications for estimating the forward term premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 100-106.
    16. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Ichiue, Hibiki & Ueno, Yoichi, 2015. "Monetary policy and the yield curve at zero interest," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-12.
    18. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Peter Feldhütter, 2016. "Can Affine Models Match the Moments in Bond Yields?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-56, June.
    20. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 2015. "The SR approach: A new estimation procedure for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamic term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 420-451.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    zero lower bound; term premia; term structure of interest rates; monetary policy rate expectations; regime switches;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.