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Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions

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Abstract

Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model, including the 2008-2009 recession, conditional on the actual values of the exogenous variables. The main exogenous variables are stock prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and exogenous government policy variables. Monetary policy is endogenous. Fluctuations in stock and housing prices (housing prices after 1995) are important drivers of output fluctuations-large wealth effects on household expenditures. In explaining the 2008-2009 recession detailed financial variables such as credit-constraint variables are not needed for the aggregate predictions. The sluggish recovery after the 2008-2009 recession is explained in large part by sluggish government spending. There is no evidence of secular stagnation.

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  • Ray C. Fair, 2020. "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2260R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2260r
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    2. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1165-1179, September.
    3. Fair Ray C, 2005. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, August.
    4. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, May.
    5. Patrick J. Kehoe & Pierlauro Lopez & Virgiliu Midrigan & Elena Pastorino, 2020. "Credit Frictions in the Great Recession," Staff Report 617, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Ray C. Fair, 2012. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 99-108, March.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    8. Ray C. Fair, 2017. "Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008–2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 495-523, March.
    9. Ray Fair, 2005. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2629, Yale School of Management.
    10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    11. Ray C Fair, 2020. "Some important macro points," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 556-578.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Recessions; Expansions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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