IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/2260r.html

Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions

Author

Abstract

Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model, including the 2008-2009 recession, conditional on the actual values of the exogenous variables. The main exogenous variables are stock prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and exogenous government policy variables. Monetary policy is endogenous. Fluctuations in stock and housing prices (housing prices after 1995) are important drivers of output fluctuations-large wealth effects on household expenditures. In explaining the 2008-2009 recession detailed financial variables such as credit-constraint variables are not needed for the aggregate predictions. The sluggish recovery after the 2008-2009 recession is explained in large part by sluggish government spending. There is no evidence of secular stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 2020. "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2260R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2260r
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d22/d2260-r.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    2. Patrick J. Kehoe & Pierlauro Lopez & Virgiliu Midrigan & Elena Pastorino, 2020. "Credit Frictions in the Great Recession," Staff Report 617, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 2012. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 99-108, March.
    4. Fair Ray C, 2005. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, August.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 2017. "Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008–2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 495-523, March.
    6. Ray C Fair, 2020. "Some important macro points," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 556-578.
    7. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1165-1179, September.
    8. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, January.
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    10. Ray Fair, 2005. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2629, Yale School of Management.
    11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ray C. Fair, 2020. "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2260, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
    3. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    4. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri, 2011. "Oil efficiency, demand, and prices: a tale of ups and downs," International Finance Discussion Papers 1031, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Ray C. Fair, 2018. "Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 184-194, October.
    6. William Gavin & Benjamin Keen & Finn Kydland, 2015. "Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 694-707, July.
    7. Ray C. Fair, 2022. "A note on the fed’s power to lower inflation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 56-63, April.
    8. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. repec:aen:journl:ej34-3-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    12. Ray Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2443, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2009.
    13. Radosław Puka & Bartosz Łamasz & Marek Michalski, 2021. "Effectiveness of Artificial Neural Networks in Hedging against WTI Crude Oil Price Risk," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, June.
    14. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2020. "Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    15. Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR," Working Papers 2002-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Zeina Alsalman, 2023. "Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 479-511, July.
    17. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione 'Piero Sraffa'.
    18. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    19. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 517-525.
    20. Gong, Xu & Chen, Liqiang & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Analyzing dynamic impacts of different oil shocks on oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    21. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2260r. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.