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Oil price shock and economic growth : Experience of CEMAC countries

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  • BESSO, Christophe Raoul
  • FEUBI PAMEN, Eric Patrick

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of oil shocks on the growth rate of Growth Domestic Product (GDP) in CEMAC countries. We use a panel VAR model approach to the variation of the real GDP growth rate, oil price inflation rate and money supply between 2000 and 2015. Our main results show that CEMAC countries mostly depend on oil pension. Consequently, the analysis of impulsion response functions and the decomposition of variance show that, the shock on oil price negatively affects the growth rate of the GDP. We then suggest CEMAC countries to diversify their production, the destination of their exports and the sources of budgetary income or takings.

Suggested Citation

  • BESSO, Christophe Raoul & FEUBI PAMEN, Eric Patrick, 2016. "Oil price shock and economic growth : Experience of CEMAC countries," MPRA Paper 76034, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jan 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:76034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
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    5. Feride Ozturk, 2015. "Oil Price Shocks-Macro Economy Relationship in Turkey," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(5), pages 846-857, May.
    6. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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