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Keynesian And Neoclassical Fiscal Sustainability Indicators, With Applications To Emu Member Countries

  • Alberto Bagnai

    (Department of Public Economics, University of Rome I)

The purposes of this paper are twofold: first, it aims at critically evaluating the solvency criterion, pioneered by Hamilton and Flavin (1986), which is nowadays almost hegemonic in the analysis of public debt sustainability, and at illustrating alternative measures of sustainability grounded on the dynamic stability approach originated by Domar (1944); secondly, it looks at sustainability in EMU member countries, with particular attention given to the relations between sustainability and the design of fiscal rules. The results show that the 3% rule imposed by the Maastricht treaty can be justified as a sustainability requirement for an 'average' EMU member country. At the same time, the dispersion around this average is quite substantial: this questions the viability of uniform deficit caps across EMU member countries.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/pe/papers/0411/0411005.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Public Economics with number 0411005.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 14 Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:0411005
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 27
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Persson, Torsten, 1985. "Deficits and intergenerational welfare in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 67-84, August.
  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Nouriel Roubini, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt and Government Solvency: Evidence from OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 3658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Howell H. Zee, 1988. "The Sustainability and Optimality of Government Debt," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(4), pages 658-685, December.
  4. Nigel Andrew Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
  5. David W. Wilcox, 1987. "The substainability of government deficits: implications of the present- value borrowing constraint," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. James Payne, 1997. "International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(12), pages 775-779.
  7. Arne Heise, 2002. "Optimal Public Debts, Sustainable Deficits, and Budgetary Consolidation," Empirica, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 319-337, December.
  8. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Working Papers 142, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  9. James Tobin, 1986. "The Monetary-Fiscal Mix: Long-Run Implications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 780, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Stephen A. O'Connell & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Rational Ponzi Games," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 18-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    • O'Connell, Stephen A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Rational Ponzi Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(3), pages 431-50, August.
  11. James Tobin & Michael Haliassos, 1988. "The Macroeconomics of Government Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 888, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Buiter, W.H. & Corsetti, G. & Roubini, N., 1992. "Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsence in the Treaty of Maastricht," Papers 674, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  13. Matthew Canzoneri & Behzad Diba, 1999. "The Stability and Growth Pact: A Delicate Balance or an Albatross?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 241-258, September.
  14. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
  15. Bagnai, Alberto & Carlucci, Francesco, 2003. "An aggregate model for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 623-649, May.
  16. Smith, Gary, 1979. "The long run consequences of monetary and fiscal policies when the government's budget is not balanced," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 59-79, February.
  17. Marco Buti & Gabriele Giudice, 2002. "Maastricht's Fiscal Rules at Ten: An Assessment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 823-848, December.
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